Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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A weak matchup on Monday Night Football allows us to shift our focus to an exceptional NBA lineup tonight. We get our first matchup of Paolo Banchero vs Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Celtics play a surging Raptors team, and the Suns travel to Dallas for a rematch of the WCF. As always, injury reports are trickling in throughout the day and have a huge impact on player props, so check back on this article for late additions.
Lock in our NBA picks for each of tonight’s games
Paolo Banchero (ORL) over 21.5 points + assists (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Magic still continue to struggle to get wins, but they’re shooting the ball significantly better of late. 49% from the field over their last 3 is a season-high and should keep Banchero at his 4 apg over the last 4. The Bucks are giving up 110 ppg over the last 3 (+2 ppg over the season average) and Middleton has only played 1 game this season, so there’s rust to be shaken off.
Banchero gets the benefit from the refs at home as he’s averaging +2 free-throw attempts per game in Orlando and 6 ppg from the free-throw line. You combine that with his 1 3pm in 5 of the last 6 and this line looks very achievable regardless of the opponent. He’s hit this in 14/17 (82%) games on the season (7/8 (87%) at home) and I’m not buying into Giannis shutting him down entirely; he’s THAT good of a player. 1U
Be sure to check out our full Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic predictions
Luguentz Dort (OKC) under 14.5 points (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tough matchup tonight for Dort on the road, where he’s averaging only 12.4 ppg (vs 16.4 at home). 34% of his points this season have come from three-point range and the Hawks have greatly improved their perimeter defense this season. They allow the 7th-fewest percent of opponent field goal attempts from beyond the arc and are 4th overall in Opp Effective 3-Point %, meaning teams are taking fewer shots and making fewer shots from deep against this Hawks team.
To make matters worse, Dort has struggled with foul trouble on the road. Of the 6 games where he tallied 5 fouls, 5 were on the road. Dort will likely have his hands full with Trae and Dejounte Murray on the defensive end. 1U from me.
Be sure to check out our full Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks predictions
Scottie Barnes(TOR) over 22.5 points + rebounds (-105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Barnes has been filling up the stat sheet of late with 23 rebounds in the last 2 games, particularly in the ORB column. He has 5 ORB in the last 2 and the Celtics rank 28th in Opp ORB%. As far as the points, Barnes surprisingly has had success against the Celtics in his short career (19.7PP) and he’s gone for 20+ in 3/4 games vs BOS. At home Barnes excels, shooting 51% from the field and 40% from 3. The Celtics pose a tough matchup, but I like him to keep his efficiency against a line he’s hit in 5/9 at home and 4 of the L6. Al Horford is a late scratch due to lower back stiffness, freeing up Barnes on the glass. 1U
Tobias Harris (PHI) under 16.5 Points (-110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
James Harden returns tonight to Houston and while I’d love to hammer his overs, I’m going to take the responsible route. I’m pivoting to what this means for Tobias Harris. With Harden in the line-up, he’s only averaging 13.4 PPG on 10 FGA per game. I expect Philadelphia to slow down the pace and go back to iso heavy basketball, which will relegate Harris to being a spot up 3P shooter that we saw earlier in the season. Surprisingly, Houston over the L7 has shown signs of life on defense. They’re giving up the 2nd fewest PPG and 2nd fewest 3PM to Opposing PFs over that span. Harris sees a ding to his FG% (45%) and 3P% (34%) all on the road compared to at home. This results in only 15PPG. I realize Maxey was a 3rd option in the first 9 game stretch of the season, but I can see Harris being the odd man out tonight while Embiid and Harden play their two man game. Jabari Smith’s length could prove to be the deciding factor in how Harris performs tonight behind the arc. 0.5U
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