Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
NBA Sundays are now the crown jewel of the week. The best matchups and a full slate of games to look forward to starting at 1:00pm ET, similar to how we see NFL Sundays. It will be this way until the end of the regular season and this weekend gives us the gem we’ve been waiting for: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks. This is my pick for the Western Conference Finals and our first showdown of Kyrie vs Durant on their new teams.
To add to the excitement, Luka Doncic and Devin Booker have a history of not being fond of the other. Golden State vs Los Angeles Lakers would have been another dream matchup when the NBA drew it up, but sadly, we are without LeBron James, but Steph Curry is slated to return. In the late window, the New York Knicks travel to Boston to take on the Celtics in what will feel like a playoff atmosphere. Let’s get into the player props!
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Kyrie Irving (DAL) over 30.5 points + assists (-114)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Since becoming a member of the Mavericks, Kyrie Irving is averaging 6.8 assists per game on 12.8 potential apg. He’s coming off his best performance as a Maverick (40 points on 68% shooting and 6/8 from 3) and it appears Luka Doncic and Kyrie are finding their rhythm together. He’s had new fewer than 5 assists in a game in Dallas and Jason Kidd is filling the floor with 3 shooters at all times. If Ayton is a scratch (currently questionable), it will make it easier for Kidd to continue running these small lineups where “drive and kick” will be the theme. Kyrie has hit this in 4/8 as a Maverick and had 34 pa against the Suns in January as a Net. I’m expecting playoff-caliber basketball and that means Kyrie will be at his best. 1U
Kevin Durant (PHO) over 1.5 threes made (-125)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kevin Durant has hit this line in both of his games as a Phoenix Sun, going 2/4 each time. Durant is averaging 3.5 drives per game in those games, which has resulted in 1.5 FGA on those drives. By comparison, he averaged 9.5 drives per game as a member of the Nets. Essentially, he’s not attacking the basket just yet as he recovers from his injury and is playing well off Devin Booker. I’ll ride the trend until Durant shows me otherwise or they move the line off 1.5 threes made. 0.5U
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Matisse Thybulle (POR) over 2.5 steals + blocks (-108)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Matisse Thybulle has hit this in 4 straight games and 6/7 as a member of the Trail Blazers. He’s finally getting the minutes he deserves (30.7) and is a starter on his team. Today, he faces the Orlando Magic who have the 6th-most turnovers per game this season and the 4th-most over the last 3 games. 1U
JutPicks also has some NBA player prop picks for today’s slate!
Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL) over 24.5 points + rebounds (-118)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Admittedly, I watch a lot of Orlando Magic basketball this year (it helps that they’re always the first game of the day). They’re one of my favorite League Pass teams and one of the most promising young franchises in the league. Wendell Carter Jr. is playing some of the best basketball of his career lately and gets a great matchup today in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are giving up the 2nd-most points in the paint over the last 3 games. His PR line has fluctuated a lot lately, ranging from 22.5 to 26.5 over the last 10 games and this has settled at an agreeable line for me against the Blazers. In one game this season against Portland, Carter Jr. put up 20 points and 10 rebounds and I expect something similar today. One benefit of today’s matchup compared to his last is Drew Eubanks starting at center. Over the last 7 games, Portand has given up the 5th-most points and 4th-most rebounds per game to opposing centers. Let’s keep that rolling today. 1.5U
Julius Randle (NYK) under 3.5 threes made (-135)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m fading Julius Randle, but only on the 3-point line! He’s coming off one of his best 3-point shooting performances of his career (8 made) and I’m expecting a good amount of regression against this Celtics team. They’re allowing the 10th-best opponent 3-point percentage at home (34.1%) and held Randle to 3/9 from deep in their matchup last week. This game matters greatly to the Celtics, who have beaten the Knicks only once this season, in November, and need to regain the #1 seed from the Bucks. I’m expecting a playoff atmosphere in Boston as the Knicks are now the hottest team in the league after seeing Milwaukee fall last night. Randle is shooting only 31% from 3 in losses this year. It’s a tough fade, but Tatum and Brown will be locked in defensively. 1U
$5 and a Dream Parlay (+11816)
- Kevin Durant 3+ 3PM (+260)
- Demar DeRozan 25+ CHI Win (+152)
- Russell Westbrook DD + LAC Win (+270)
- Wendell Carter Jr DD + ORL Win (+255)
$5 pays $590
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