Best NBA Player Props for the Wednesday Slate (5/5): Sabonis to help the Pacers Rebound?

Domantas Sabonis of the Indiana Pacers
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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

We’re in the stretch run of the NBA season.  With teams’ motvation in question, it can get tricky for NBA bettors to find edges, with player props being no different.  Before we get into that, check out all of our analysts’ picks and analysis if you’re looking to bet sides or totals tonight.

Tonight, I’m have the rare three pack of plays I love.  One under, and two overs, with all three focusing in on teams, or opposing teams, that are looking to keep winning as the season winds down.

Michael Porter Jr. under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

Line available at publishing.

An uncomfortable fade on the Nuggets sophomore sensation.  However, even with the Nuggets down several key pieces, I’m liking the Knicks to keep Porter at bay tonight.

When playing at least 30 minutes this season, MPJ has remained under this line in 22 of 34 games (65%).  He’s a player who relies heavily on the assist – 79% of his made shots come off a pass.  The Knicks are allowing the sixth least assists per game.  Not only that, but they play slow (last in team pace) and defend shooters well (second lowest opponent’s eFG percentage).  Versus teams in the top half of both of these stats, Porter Jr.’s PRA production decreases by 15% per minute.

The Nuggets’ last game versus the slow and defensively proficient Lakers might be indicative of what’s to come tonight.  In that matchup, Porter could only muster 25 PRA, despite playing 39 minutes.  I have a similar outcome tonight, with my projections showing 28 PRA for the Nuggets forward.

Damian Lillard over 7.5 assists (+120)

Line available at publishing.

The Blazers superstar point guard induces Dame Time when he needs to take over a game from a scoring perspective.  In a road game versus the lowly Cavs, I don’t see that being tonight.

It’s easy to see when Lillard turns more to faciliating than scoring.  Averaging 7.6 assists per game, that number jumps to 8.6 on the road.  And when the competition is subpar, the Weber State alum relies on his teammates more.  Versus the seven teams with win percentages currently at 40% or lower, Lillard has dished out at least eight assists in ten of fourteen games (71%).  In those games which were on the road, he hit this number five of six times.

The Cavs have allowed the second most assists per game (28.7) over their last 15 contests.  And, Lillard had nine assists in only 29 minutes, in their first matchup this season.  I have the Blazers guard projected at nine dimes again tonight.

Domantas Sabonis over 12.5 rebounds (-110)

Line available at publishing.

Riddled by injuries, the Pacers are in deparate need of a win, in an effort to avoid being the road team in the vaunted play-in tournament.  Getting All-Star big man Sabonis back in the fold helps some.  Returning from a seven game injury absence, the five year veteran casually pulled down 19 boards in back-to-back efforts.  Sabonis is relied on heavily to grab rebounds, especially without his frontcourt counterpart, Myles Turner, who is dealing with an injury of his own.  He averages 14 rebounds per game when Turner is out, hitting this total in seven of ten contests.

Tonight, Sabonis gets the Kings, who are the premier matchup for opposing center’s rebounds.  The Kings allow a league high 17 boards to opposing centers.  With both the Pacers and Kings ranking in the top ten of team pace (total for this game currently sitting at 240), there will be plenty of shots, and plenty of rebounds to go around.

The Pacers are in must-win mode, as evidenced by Sabonis’ 43 minutes versus the Wizards on Monday.  Versus a Kings team with plenty of size, the Gonzaga product might be needed for a similar workload tonight.  I have Sabonis projected at over 14 rebounds tonight.

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