NBA Picks & NBA Predictions

Two teams in very contrasting form meet at the TD Garden on Sunday. The Boston Celtics have lost their last three games, getting absolutely dominated by Joel Embiid in the process and struggling to get their offense going without Jayson Tatum. Tatum is due to miss the game due to COVID-19. The Cleveland Cavaliers, on the other hand, are surging up the standings thanks to a three-game winning streak–including two massive wins over the Nets. The winning streak coincides with the return of Collin Sexton and also with their trade with the Nets, which has given their depth and talent a huge boost. Sexton’s play has been impressive lately as he is averaging over 33 points per game since his return. With his backcourt mate Darius Garland also returning from injury for the second game against the Nets, the Cavaliers are almost at full health and they will fancy their chances against Boston.

A key to the Cavaliers beating Brooklyn was the dominant play of their big men, and they should have the same level of success on Sunday. The Celtics simply lack physically imposing big men in their rotation, as the pair of Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis can be pushed around. That was evident against the 76ers, as Embiid averaged a 40-point double-double while Dwight Howard had double-digit rebounds in both games. Andre Drummond and Jarrett Allen should be equally as dominant here. The Cavaliers are also second in the league in defensive rating this season, and without Tatum they will be able to focus on slowing down Jaylen Brown. Based on the matchups on the inside and the play of Sexton, the Cavaliers have a real chance of winning this–but the point spread is the bet to make because it offers an extra bit of security. Back it with confidence.

Both teams currently rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of pace, with Cleveland in particular playing at the second-slowest pace in the NBA behind only the Knicks. The Cavs’ scoring on the road also takes a massive dip compared to playing at home, as it drops off from 110 points per game to just 97. The Celtics surprisingly also score two points less at home than they do on the road, and their percentages take a hit; both their field-goal and three-point percentages decrease at the TD Garden. The last two games each team played were high-scoring, but both had opponents in the top five in the league in pace that they had to try and match. Both of these teams also recently played the Knicks, and neither of those game totals surpassed 209 points. Expect the pace of this game to be more comparable to those matchups. Back the under.

Both teams have been going through a tough stretch lately, with the Hornets on a four-game losing streak and the Magic having lost seven of their last eight games. There is cause for optimism for the Magic, however, as they are returning home after a five-game road trip. They are a .500 team at the Amway Center and will fancy their chances of improving that record against a Hornets team they have beaten the last four times they have playing in the regular season. Evan Fournier is also back in the lineup and is providing a much-needed scoring punch for the Magic, taking some of that scoring burden away from Nikola Vucevic. In the two games since his return, the pair has combined for more than 50 points in both games and will look to do so here tonight as well. Vucevic should have a lot of success going up against Bismack Biyombo and Cody Zeller, neither of which will cause him much trouble with their offense.

The Hornets have really struggled to defend during their losing streak, which should favor this Magic team that can sometimes struggle getting offensive production from multiple sources. The Hornets have given up more than 110 points in three straight games and have failed to keep pace themselves. A key reason for that has been the struggles on their bench. Rookie LaMelo Ball has been very up and down lately and has a couple of single-digit scoring games over that stretch. He has also been turning the ball over more, having had five turnover games against both the Raptors and the Bulls. The Magic bench should be able to outscore their counterparts in this once. Terrence Ross is more than capable of heating up and Dwayne Bacon should be motivated going against his former club. If the Magic bench steps up, they should be able to win this one.

As mentioned earlier, the Hornets have struggled defensively and allow opponents to score 112 points per game when they are on the road. The Magic are scoring 112 points per game in their wins, so them getting a result here would go a long way to helping clear this over. The Magic are sixth in the NBA in field-goal attempts per game in part thanks to the fact that they are second in the league in offensive rebounding. With the Hornets being somewhat undersized, and their leading rebounder not even averaging 8.0 boards per contest, those opportunities should once again present themselves to the Magic. The Hornets, on the other hand, lead the league in assists and are fourth in the NBA in fast-break points per game, so they should keep the pace of this one high enough for the over to clear.

The Hawks were a nice story early on, but there is not much buzz about them right now. They are on a three-game SU/ATS winning streak, but two wins against Minnesota and one over Detroit hardly say you are ready to compete with better competition. Those are the worst teams in the Western and Eastern Conference, respectively. Atlanta was scoring a ton early in the season, but that has cooled. Trae Young is averaging 25 ppg but his percentages are not great. He actually has strong scoring support and the team gets a little wonky when he tries to do too much, so has to learn to pick his spots. Young and his supporting cast will have to score to keep pace with the Bucks. 

Milwaukee has lost its last two games–the first time all season that has happened. Losses to the Nets and Lakers are not terrible, but they may be indicators that Milwaukee just isn’t there quite yet–certainly not at the Lakers level if you watched that last game closely. Giannis Antetokounmpo is unstoppable but also predictable at times, and I think that is what hurts the Bucks. Jrue Holiday is the key for them getting to that next level. He is scoring more, 20+ in three of the last four games, but still needs to be more assertive when he is out there. That is why they got him. It looks like a few wins by the Hawks and a couple of losses by the Bucks have not done much to adjust the line here; it’s a pretty fair number. But I am leaning to the home side because they should be that much more motivated to get a win. Milwaukee is under.500 ATS for the season but the way they score is going to keep the pressure on Atlanta. In part because the Hawks struggle with shot selection, the Bucks should get a nice lead and hold on.

The Hawks have the reputation of being an offensive-minded team. However, they are just 3-12 O/U for the season. They have played just one over in their last 11 games, which makes you wonder whether the oddsmakers are making markets about what they are supposed to be instead of what they are. Milwaukee might not be racking up the wins the way they have in the past, but they can still score a ton and are not as good on defense as they were a year ago. I think Milwaukee will be in control for most of the game which, mainly because the Hawks’ scoring probably won’t get out of hand.  I am going to side with another under for the Hawks. The Bucks have to start playing better defense at some point, right? Take the under. 

After their last six games were postponed due to health and safety protocols, the Washington Wizards are just happy to be back playing basketball. It’s been a rough season for them so far and before this long break they beat the Phoenix Suns to end a three-game losing streak. However, with 12 games gone without playing any games plus sporadic individual practices, I think rust will play a factor in this game along with injuries to Russell Westbrook and a couple more players still under the Covid protocol. Bradley Beal has been the lone consistent offensive option for them this season, averaging 34.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game.

The San Antonio Spurs are coming off two straight losses coming into this one, but they have been dominant in head-to-head meetings recently (winning seven of the last nine). DeMar DeRozan has been playing well; he led five San Antonio players in double-figures with 29 points, six rebounds, and six assists against Dallas. LaMarcus Aldridge added 26 points and nine rebounds in that game, as well. Point guard Dejounte Murray injured his ankle in the first minute of the game and that hurt the Spurs’ perimeter defense. His status remains questionable for Sunday. We fancy the home team in this one, simply because the Wizards are coming off a long break–which means finding any rhythm will be tough, especially with players coming in and out of the lineup on a daily basis due to Covid. San Antonio is 20-0 in its last 20 home games against Washington. Enough said, really; take the home team in this one again.

Defensively, the Wizards are 28th in the NBA in opponents effective field-goal percentage at 56 percent. They haven’t had a game this season in which they held their opponent under the 100-point mark. In six games so far, teams have scored at least 128 points against them; they rank dead last in the NBA with an average of 121.3 points allowed per game. The Spurs are in the middle of the league at 16th with 111.3 points allowed per game and oddly enough they rank 16th in scoring, as well (110.8 points per contest). The over has been a good bet for Washington’s games recently, landing in six of its last seven. In head-to-head meetings, the over has cashed in their last five games played against each other. That includes scores of 138-132 and 124-122 in 2019-20 encounters.

Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system was once characterized as “the pinnacle of team defensive strategy in the NBA.” After going 97-107 in his tenure in Minnesota, Thibodeau’s reputation took a hit, but he has made quite an impact on the New York Knicks since being hired this past offseason. New York ranked 23rd in the league last season in defensive efficiency. Through 17 games this season, the Knicks rank 5th in defensive efficiency, holding their opponents to a league-best 102.8 points per game and 31.0 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line. The Knicks rank top-10 in rebounding rate and blocks per game. Julius Randle has been phenomenal, averaging 22.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists to lead New York’s young supporting cast. R.J. Barrett has scored 19 or more points in six consecutive contests, including a career-high 28 points less than a week ago in a win against Golden State. 

Due to COVID health and safety regulations, the Trail Blazers haven’t played a game since January 18. Prior to their brief hiatus, Portland lost Jusuf Nurkic to a fractured wrist in a loss against Indiana before losing C.J. McCollum two nights later to a hairline fracture in his foot. The injuries have wreaked havoc on Portland’s offensive production, as they have averaged only 101.0 points over their last three games. Damian Lillard is currently running a one-man-show in Rip City and it likely won’t be enough to defeat New York on Sunday evening.

Portland will be without McCollum in this game, who is averaging a career-high 26.7 points per game. They will also be without Nurkic, their starting center and arguably their best defensive player. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and promises to make life difficult for Portland from the opening tip-off. The Trail Blazers shoot the second-most three-pointers in the league but won’t find many open looks against a Knicks team that defends long-range attempts better than any other team in the NBA. There isn’t much to suggest a high-scoring affair in this one.

Since the Brooklyn Nets welcomed back Kyrie Irving, they are 1-2 straight up and 0-3 against the spread. The big three of Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden finally showed that they can work together against the Miami Heat in their last game. They were up 14 heading into the fourth, at which point they temporarily fell apart before closing the game strong. The more reps that this new Nets team gets together, the better they will become. The Heat are still dealing with coronavirus issues and injury problems involving their best players. They are missing Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley, and Tyler Herro–who are all big pieces of this reigning Eastern Conference champion team.

The Nets have covered four out of their last five games against the Heat and they have covered by five points per game. Irving, Durant, and Harden should be able to combine for about 80 in this game and lead the Nets to a big win and cover against the Heat, who are still missing some of their best players. Bam Adebayo had one of the best games of his career when these teams met two days ago and it still was not enough. Adebayo’s performance is unlikely to be replicated, and without it the Heat will have almost no chance to cover. Lay the points with the Nets.

Each of the Nets’ last 12 games have gone over the total and they have done so by a ridiculous average of 13.7 points per game. On the other side, six of the Heat’s last eight games have gone over the game total. These two teams faced off only two days ago and there were 252 points in that game, which was played at a blazing fast speed. I am expecting this game to be played at a similar pace and to have a similar amount of points. This total is way too low for a game that I expect to be played at a very fast pace, which will generally be the case when Irving, Harden, and Durant are on the floor.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are long, tall, and a headache for their opponents. Of the ten players in Cleveland’s regular rotation, eight of them are 6’5’’ or taller, with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland being the two exceptions. The Cavaliers have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the NBA, holding their opponents to a stifling 106.6 points per game. They out-hustle their opponents nearly every night, ranking 3rd in the league in both deflections and loose balls recovered. The combination of Andre Drummond and newly acquired, Jarrett Allen at 6’10’’ and 6’11’’, respectively, makes it nearly impossible for opponents to score close to the basket. Cleveland holds opposing teams to the third-lowest field goal percentage in the league on shots taken inside of five feet. The Cavaliers are not quite the same powerhouse that appeared in four consecutive NBA Finals, but they are a team fighting for a playoff spot, led by Sexton who is averaging 26.8 points and 4.2 assists per game on the season, and Drummond, who leads the league in rebounding, securing 15.1 boards per contest. 

The defending champion, Los Angeles Lakers are spearheaded by superstars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Lakers enter this game tied for the best record in the NBA but are only 10-7 against the spread. They rank top 10 in offensive efficiency but struggle with turnovers and could find life difficult against Cleveland, who forces the most turnovers of anyone in basketball. J.B. Bickerstaff has the Cavaliers playing hard, and will likely cause enough trouble to keep this game close on Monday night.

Both of these teams rank in the top-five in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and like to slow down the pace and attack their opponent in the half-court. The Lakers are the third-best defense in the league defending the three-point arc and figure to have little trouble slowing down a Cleveland team that struggles to shoot the long-ball. After shockingly allowing 141 points to the Boston Celtics on Sunday, expect the Cavaliers to lock-in defensively as they attempt to get back in the win column. All signs point to a defensive slugfest in this one.

This game should be fun. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are two of the best and most unique players in the league. 

Denver is on a 3-0 SUATS run. The past two wins have been at Phoenix, both in overtime. They will take them as this team has been up and down all season. If you round up Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season and it will be interesting to see how the Mavericks look to defend him. Kristaps Porzings could give him some trouble but only because he is so long. Michael Porter Jr is back from injury. He has been coming off the bench and had a double-double in their last game. If he is right the Nuggets can continue to rise. 

Dallas has struggled with consistency this season. They are 8-8 and off a loss to a shorthanded Houston team.  Things are just a lot more difficult for them this season. The offense has not been nearly as productive. I am not saying that the league has caught up to Luka Doncic, it hasn’t, but there have been some games where the strategy of letting him get his while limiting the rest of the team has been effective. Especially when Porzingis has been out of the lineup. Both players need to be a little more effective from deep.

This is a small number here. Dallas is at home and they have been net profitable at 9-7 ATS but I am leaning to Denver. They come into this game with momentum and while Luka can be awesome the combo of Jamal Murray and Jokic is much more lethal than Luka and Kristaps. Bringing in Porter off the bench has so far been a winning formula. It balances things out a little bit and he can make the second unit a real threat. Dallas has been solid on defense this season but I am not really buying into those numbers. Denver gets what it wants on the way to a win.

Take Denver.

The Nuggets are one of the most profitable over teams in the league at 12-4 O/U. No grand surprise there as Denver is 4th in scoring and just a mediocre defensive squad this season. Dallas has been the opposite at 6-10 O/U on the season, again no surprise. Their top guns have struggled with their efficiency this season and until that rises they are going to go through stretches where they look pretty ragged. Taking on a light defensive team like Denver might help them get going.  Murray and Jokic can heat things up but if this game is going to be close like predicted, they are not going to help much with the defense. These teams met a couple of weeks ago in Denver in a game that went over. Luka had one of his best games of the season in the win. 

Take the over.

The Boston Celtics were the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference with Jayson Tatum and he is officially back for this matchup. He is the leader of this Celtics team and his return should give them a boost. They are on a back-to-back but they should be confident after destroying the Cavaliers 141-103 to cover by 32 points on Sunday. On the other side of this game, the Chicago Bulls are coming off of an 11-point loss to the Lakers, but it was not that close. They were down 30 points at halftime and 11 was the lowest the deficit was past the first quarter. The Bulls have one of the worst defenses in the NBA, as they allow 118 points per game on 48 percent shooting from the field.

With the absence of Tatum, Jaylen Brown has emerged into a superstar. Brown is now averaging an awesome 27 points per game. Brown and Tatum together are going to make problems for any team they face, especially the Bulls–who struggle defensively. The Celtics have covered eight out of their last 10 meetings with the Bulls and they have covered by an average of 7.25 points per game. This spread is way too low because of Tatum’s return. Expect the Celtics offense to be too much for the Bulls to handle and for the Celtics to cover easily.

Both the Celtics and the Bulls go over the total at a high rate. Six of the Bulls’ last eight games have gone over the total and they have gone over by an average of 9.6 points per game. Each of the Celtics’ last three games have gone over the total and those have gone over by an eye-popping average of 16.2 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best offenses and one of the worst defenses in the league, mainly due to their ridiculously fast pace. The Celtics are able to play at a fast pace and they are comfortable in high-scoring games. This total is too low for teams that can play at such fast paces. I expect this game to have around 241 points.

Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Portland Trail Blazers are on the back end of a back to back. The difference is the Thunder are coming off of a loss and have to travel to Portland. The Trail Blazers just beat on the New York Knicks at home so they do not have to travel and they have confidence after such a great win. The Thunder have failed to cover four of their last six games and have looked dead after their good start. The Thunder also have one of the worst offenses in the league and that should be a huge factor in this high scoring game. The Trail Blazers play at a very fast pace and they should be able to make this game fast paced. The Thunder are not used to playing at a fast pace and this should throw them off their game from the opening tip off. Damian Lillard is having an awesome season averaging over 28 points per game and almost seven assists per game. Since the injury to C.J. McCollum, the Trail Blazers have become more well rounded than just Lillard and McCollum. This spread is way too low for this matchup. Expect the fast pace of the Trail Blazers to be too much for the Thunder to handle and for the Trail Blazers to cover easily. Lay the points with the Trail Blazers.

Neither the Oklahoma City Thunder nor the Portland Trail Blazers hit the over at a high rate but this total is a little too low for the pace I expect this game to be played at. We expect the Trail Blazers to make this game fast paced to play to their strengths and this fast pace should help the game go over the total. Both the Thunder and the Trail Blazers struggle defensively as they are both in the bottom ten of the league in terms of points allowed. For the pace this game should be played at, and the horrible defenses in this game, I am projecting this game to go over by about eight points. The over for the Thunder is 3-1-1 over their last five games and we expect that to continue in this fast paced matchup. Expect this game to go over due to the fast pace that the Trail Blazers love to play at. Take the over in this game of mediocre Western Conference teams.