NBA Picks & NBA Predictions

After their latest 131-124 win over the Detroit Pistons, the LA Clippers have now won five straight and are third in the Western Conference. The Pistons defense didn’t put up much of a resistance as the Clips shot 62 percent from the field and made 15 shots from deep on 26 attempts. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play, but Marcus Morris filled in with 33 points and Paul George had 32 and nine assists. Clippers are now 8-2 ATS in their last ten games after a win, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Central Division opponents.

Indiana is also on a decent run. They’ve won three straight and four of five, but two of those wins came against Minnesota and Orlando, who are arguably two of the worst teams in the NBA right now. The Pacers’ home form has been worrying all season. They’ve won just nine of 24 games at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse and covered only once in their last 11 games at home. They will once again be without their big man Myles Turner, who is still out recovering from an ankle injury.

The Clippers won the earlier meeting this season in January by 33 points. They’ve won the last three meetings by an average of 16.6 points, their last visit to Indy was an 11-point victory. With Kawhi back in the mix, they get extra help on both ends of the floor. With Turner out for Indy, look for Ivica Zubac to have a solid night at the center position. Take the Clippers to cover away from home.

LA has scored at a higher clip in their last five outings, but three of the five teams they faced aren’t really known for playing that much defense. In their last five visits to Indiana the total has gone under in each of the five games. Looking at their last ten games on the road the under has cashed in seven of those, for the season they are 12-12-1 on the O/U in road games. In the last ten head-to-head meetings these teams are averaging a combined 204.2 points, which is a lot less than the points total today. Indiana has also had a couple of higher-scoring games recently, mostly on the road. They are 12-12 on the O/U at home this season. The Clippers play the third-slowest pace in the NBA this season, averaging just 98 possessions per 48 minutes. As they are the better team they should control the tempo of the game which should result in fewer possessions and points. Take the under.

The Hawks are coming off an impressive win over Charlotte. Not only did it vault them into first place in the Southeast Division but they won without Trae Young and a host of other players. If this team keeps winning Nate McMillan might start getting some Coach of the Year buzz. For this game, it looks like the Hawks could be without Young, John Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari and a few others. Brandon Goodwin was in Young’s spot on Sunday and scored 17 points. In six previous April games, he had 21 combined so that was clearly a step-up performance. 

Toronto is desperate for wins. They are 11th in the East but even just a 5-2 stretch might get that over the hump. Kyle Lowry was back for their recent loss against New York. He looked pretty good but Fred VanVleet is still sidelined. The rested OG Anunoby for the game as they were playing on a back-to-back but he will most likely suit up for this one. Toronto’s roster is a lot different from when the season started. Gary Trent Jr. has been awesome since being acquired via trade from Portland.

This game is a really tough one to call as it is hard to know which team is really going to show up. The Hawks are really struggling with injuries while the Raptors, even when they are healthy, have stretches in a game where they just stop scoring and then they can’t dig their way out. The last time they had a back-to-back they rested Pascal Siakam for the first game and then OG Anunoby for the second. If they do that again in this spot they are going to put themselves in a tough spot. Taking a few extra points with the in-form Hawks feels like the right way to go. Take Atlanta.

In April, the Raptors have been sporadic with their scoring. In six games this month they have scored 130-plus twice, and 103 points or less three times. They have shooters so when they are making them they look great, but they fall in love with the three-point shot too much and when they are off, their offense is terrible. Toronto knows that it needs to get back to being a good defensive team. They have recently added some big men to the roster in Khem Birch and Freddy Gillespie who will help with that, but they don’t add much on offense. With Atlanta shorthanded in many ways this game should be more modest in pace too.

Take the under.

The Los Angeles Lakers have been dealing with a lot of injuries almost all season. Currently, they are still without Anthony Davis and LeBron James who are recovering from not so minor injuries. The Lakers are also on the second night of a back-to-back as they lost to the New York Knicks last night by 15 points. Even though the Charlotte Hornets are also dealing with injuries, they are still playing quality basketball. The Hornets are 7-4 straight up and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games. All of these games without their superstar rookie LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have the rest advantage and the home-court advantage as the Lakers have to travel from New York to Charlotte. This game is the last game in the Lakers seven-game road trip. They are going to be playing with tired legs especially with all their injuries. The Hornets have had a lot of players step up through their injuries which have allowed them to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff race – they are tied for the sixth seed. Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier should be able to score with ease and lead the way for this Hornets team in this game. I am projecting the Hornets to win by five points which gives them value over the small spread. Lay the one point with the Hornets in this matchup of injury-riddled teams.

This total is just a little bit too high for these two teams of bench players. There is very little star power on either team in this game. All season the Hornets have been playing low-scoring games at home. The under has cashed in 65 percent of the Hornets home games including six out of their last seven home games. On the other side, the Lakers have played low-scoring games on the road this season. 69.2 percent of the Lakers’ road games this season have stayed under the total. This game should be played at a slow pace with no offense. I am projecting only 203 points in this game which gives the under value. Take the under in this cross-conference game.

The Utah Jazz are the best team in the NBA in terms of record as they are the only team in the league to reach 40 wins already. The Jazz have also been the best home team this season as they 24-3 straight up at home and they are also the best home team against the spread, having covered 74.1 percent of their home games. On the other side, the Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the worst teams in the NBA as they have only 20 wins and are third-to-last in the Western Conference. The Thunder are also dealing with injuries and their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is still out with his foot injury. Gilgeous-Alexander being out has led to the Thunder going 0-6 straight up and against the spread in their last six games. They have failed to cover these games by a ridiculous average of 20.4 points. This team cannot play with any team, let alone the top outfits. Even though this spread is so big, it is not big enough. I am projecting the Jazz to win by 23 points which gives them a lot of value over the Gilgeous-Alexander-less Thunder. The Jazz defense should be able to fully shut down the Thunder and lead them to a massive win. Lay the points with the Jazz in this Western Conference matchup.

This number is just a little bit too high given how good the Jazz defense is. When these two teams meet in Salt Lake City, the games usually do not have a lot of points. In the last five games that the Jazz have hosted the Thunder, the under has cashed in all five. The Jazz’s amazing defense should hold the Thunder to under 100 points and that should ultimately keep this game under the total. Rudy Gobert should be in full control of the lane on the defensive end. The Thunder should have a very hard time to get any points in the paint in this game. I am projecting this game to have only 215 points, which gives the under about eight points of value. Take the under in this matchup.

The Phoenix Suns are the hottest team in the league right now, being the only team who has won nine of their previous ten games. They picked up their latest win last night, beating the Rockets 126-120 for their eighth straight home win. They have won nine of 12 games on back-to-backs this year. The Heat have had a mediocre season so far, winning 13 of 25 games on the road, and six of their last ten games in total. Over the last ten games they only rank 24th in the league in scoring and they may find it tough to keep pace with the Suns, who lead the league in that category. The Suns beat the Heat by ten points in Miami when they played at the end of March, so they will be confident they can replicate that result.

The Suns match up well against this Heat team. Jae Crowder is a tough and gritty defender who can match Jimmy Butler’s physicality. On top of that, the pair played together last year so he should be familiar with Butler’s strengths and weaknesses. On the interior, Deandre Ayton has the athleticism needed to stay in front of Bam Adebayo. The Suns’ real advantage comes in the backcourt and the pairing of Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Averaging just over 27 points per game over the last week, it will be a tough task for anyone on the Heat to match Booker’s scoring. Duncan Robinson is a lights-out shooter but he is nowhere near the offensive threat that Booker is. Kendrick Nunn is the starting point guard for the Heat but Paul should be able to dominate him and run the game. The Suns should be able to outscore the Heat once more, back them to cover.

The Phoenix Suns have been leading the league in points per game over the last ten matches, managing a touch under 120 points per contest. They are also second in the league in terms of offensive rating over that stretch. When it comes to defensive rating, neither of these teams can be found in the top ten, which should hopefully lead to a higher-scoring contest. Both teams are, however, in the top half of the league in terms of three-pointers made, which should help push the total up. Seven of the last eight games the Suns have played have reached the 217-point mark, with the one game that did not having 216. The Heat have scored 107 or more points in each of their last five, and a total close to that should be enough. Look for the score to be along the lines of 116-108 in favour of the Suns. Back the over.

Boston is coming off a big 105-87 road win against the Denver Nuggets. The Celtics went off on a 31-3 run and held the Nuggets to just eight points in the final quarter of play to get the win. It was their third straight victory and their fourth in five games. After his 53-point burst against the Timberwolves a game earlier, Jayson Tatum led the C’s with 28 points and ten rebounds as all five starters scored in double figures. Boston is now 4-2 ATS in their last six outings and 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. They have had the Blazers’ number in recent meetings, going 5-2 SU in the last seven meetings.

Portland has struggled recently. They are only 2-4 over their last six games having beaten Detroit and Oklahoma City, which is nothing to brag about. Their last three wins before that were against Detroit, Toronto and Orlando, again weak opposition. It’s been a while since they beat a really good team. Damian Lillard has hit a rough patch averaging only 22 points and 38 percent shooting from the field, which is far below his standards. Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played in April.

The Celtics are the more in-form team and have proved they’re capable of beating top Western Conference teams after their win at Denver. They’ve beaten the last four of six teams with a winning record and Tatum has been on fire over his last six. They’ve also shown character as a team, winning their last three games after trailing at the start of the fourth quarter. Back the Celtics to get an important win at Moda Center.

The Portland Trail Blazers defense has hit the record books this season, but for the wrong reasons. They own the second-worst defensive rating in the history of the NBA, although they’ve slightly improved with the return of Jusuf Nurkic, it’s still hurting them on a nightly basis. Since the All-Star break, the Boston Celtics have improved their offensive game drastically and rank ninth with a 115.1 offensive rating. The last two meetings between the teams last season averaged 238 points and the total has gone over in four of their last five meetings in Portland. Boston should have enough defense in them to get the key stops down the stretch, but otherwise it should be a high-scoring game. Take the over.