Best NBA player props for Wednesday's slate (4/14): Getting trendy with Brogdon

Malcolm Brogdon of the Indiana Pacers
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PropBetGuy

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

It might be a sluggish hump day for some, but Wednesday night for sports fans usually equates to copius amounts of NBA action.  Twelve games on the slate tonight, meaning there is no shortage of ways for an NBA bettor to secure some action.  If you’re looking to bet sides and totals, be sure to check out all of our analysts’ picks before you place your wagers.

I’ve found a nice little groove with NBA player props as of late, hitting seven of my last eight.  As the season has trudged on, I’ve found more value in the over market as of late.  Tonight is no exception, as I’m looking at overs for two guards, both with very plus matchups on the court tonight.

Malcolm Brogdon over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

Line available at publishing.  If this combination is unavilable to you, I would pivot to over 19.5 points.

Brogdon has been one my favorite players in the NBA this season, so it was nice to see some value on his over points, rebounds and assist (PRA) line tonight. The five year veteran is averaging an even 32 PRA this season, easily a career high. He has eclipsed this total in 29 of his 47 games (62%), including 15 of 23 (65%) games directly following a loss. The Pacers are coming off a hard fought defeat at the hands of the Clippers last night, which should prompt Brogdon to lead the charge tonight.

It won’t come as a shock, but I’m loving the trends I’m seeing for this play. Beyond the raw numbers which skew positively, Brogdon gets a very plus matchup against the Rockets tonight. Houston is one of nine teams in the league that rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating (24th), and the top half in pace (5th). For an over, it’s one of my favorite Venn diagrams to use – and this play is no exception.  Versus those nine teams, Brogdon’s season PRA soars to an average of 35.3, and median of 37.5.  He’s hit this total in nine of thirteen such games (69%), including notching 44 PRA in a January matchup versus Houston.

Fully healthy after a brief four game absence, I have the Virginia alum undervalued by the books tonight. In what is poised to be a fast paced game, my projections show Brogdon’s PRA in the mid 30s.

RJ Barrett over 17.5 points (-106)

Line available at publishing.

The Knicks super sophomore is proving his disappointing rookie campaign is all but a distant memory. Averaging 17.4 points per game this season, Barrett’s shooting volume and efficiency are drastically increased, as he’s helping to lead the surprising Knicks towards playoff contention.

The Duke product’s minutes fluctuated a bit during January, however he’s back averaging over 36 minutes over his last 15 games. In games he’s received at least 28 minutes of court time, he’s eclipsed this point total in 26 of his last 35 (74%). Several of the misses are noticeably versus tougher defenses (Miami, Utah, the Lakers, Philadelphia all within the top six of defensive rating).

And tonight, Barrett will be greeted by the Pelicans and his old college friend, Zion Williamson. The Pelicans, dynamic offensively, struggle mightily on the defensive end. New Orleans rates as the third worst defense in the NBA and allows the fifth-most points (114.9). Barrett, when given the opportunity to play at least 28 minutes, has feasted on similarly porous defenses. He has scored at least 18 points in 14 of his 15 games (93%!), with a median of 21.

With his minutes stabilized, I love Barrett’s chances to soar over this point total tonight.  I have the Knicks wing projection at 20 points.

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and ‘NBA prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

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