Thursday Night Football was something of a grind last week as the Chiefs labored to a 19-8 win over the Broncos, so let’s hope for more entertainment in Week 7 when the Jacksonville Jaguars tackle the New Orleans Saints as the AFC South visits the NFC South.
Both teams are in the hunt for the playoffs, with the Jaguars coming in at 4-2 and the Saints (3-3) fighting it out with the Falcons and Buccaneers in their division.
Be sure to also check out our NFL Week 7 predictions, but now let’s take a look at my favorite anytime touchdown scorer picks for the Jaguars vs Saints game — in which I’m targeting a wide receiver from each team.
Target Prop Holliday’s best Jaguars vs Saints prop bets — we went 7-2 last week!
I like the value we are getting with Christian Kirk, who has better odds to score against the Saints than Calvin Ridley despite being the Jaguars’ leading receiver in terms of yards. The starting receivers each have 2 touchdowns this season — fellow wideout Zay Jones also has 2, but he missed last week’s game against the Colts and has missed practice again this week.
Five of the 8 touchdowns the Saints have allowed this season have been scored by WRs — the Titans and Patriots both failed to score any TDs against them — so that looks a good place to start and Kirk has impressed again this season, with 384 receiving yards while getting the most targets on the team (49). This play would obviously not be as strong if QB Trevor Lawerence is not cleared the play and the team starts C.J. Beathard, although Kirk will at least have more familiarity with the backup passer than Ridley does — having been with the team last season while the former Falcon is in his debut campaign with the Jags.
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A wide receiver again looks the best position to target for a Saints TD in this game, as the Jaguars have given up 7 scores to WRs this season and no more than 2 to any other position group (2 each for QBs, TEs, RBs and defenses). In this case, the option that stands out is a player who has yet to reach the end zone in 2023 but looks due for some positive regression. That is Michael Thomas, who has 31 catches on 47 targets this season — so he is clearly still a key figure in the offense.
Thomas has been remarkably consistent in the box score this season, with between 4 and 7 receptions on between 6 and 9 targets for between 45 and 65 receiving yards in his 6 games, and that first score should surely be coming,. He reached the end zone 3 times in just 3 games last year and had 9 TDs in his last full season in 2019. He should score again soon; it may well be on Thursday night.
Check out our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints predictions
