Best expert NFL player prop bets for Week 3's late 4:25 pm games: Zach Ertz leads the way

Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz (86) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the second half at State Farm Stadium.
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Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley


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The Packers vs Buccaneers is the highlight of the late window this Sunday. It will be exciting to see how the Chargers bounce back from their TNF loss to the Chiefs as they welcome the Jaguars to LA. The Rams and Cardinals meet in an NFC West showdown and the Falcons-Seahawks battle it out for a game that might have draft implications next April.  The opening lines appeared very sharp to me, so I do not have any 2U plays to offer, but there is good value throughout the board. Check back later in the week for any additions!

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Zach Ertz over 4.5 receptions (-125)

Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The LA Rams secondary will be missing CB Troy Hill, and CB Cobie Durant is day-to-day. With the cornerback position in flux, I think it’s a great opportunity to pounce on Ertz. After a very quiet Week 1, the 32-year-old TE is coming off 11 targets, 8 receptions and 75 yards against the Raiders. Against the Rams last season as a member of the Cardinals, Ertz saw 7 targets and 5 receptions. I also expect Sunday to be a higher-scoring affair since the total is set at 48.5. Ertz is second on the team in targets at 15 through 2 weeks. I’m playing this at 1U.

Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals predictions

Evan Engram over 34.5 receiving yards (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Derwin James did an excellent job of locking down Travis Kelce in Week 2, and I do not expect Engram to garner that type of attention from the All-Pro safety. Engram will benefit greatly from playing against the Chargers’ soft zone. Also, their pass rush will force Lawrence to get the ball out quickly. Luckily, Engram’s aDOT is only 4.4 yards.

The knock on Engram his entire career has been catching and holding onto the football, but this season he’s turned a corner: catching 11 balls on 12 targets. Engram is able to hit this line in 4 catches, but he could be in for a much bigger day if the game gets out of hand. I’d play this up to 36.5 and I’m riding for 1U.

Be sure to check out our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions

Tom Brady over 0.5 INTs (-110) 

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The big news this week is that WR1 Mike Evans is suspended this week against the Packers. Combined with injuries to Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman, and Scotty Miller, this Buccaneers WR corps could be depleted come Sunday. I expect at least one of Godwin or Julio to be out. This means inexperienced players could be thrust into high-volume roles. As a result, there could be miscommunication at some point between Brady and his receivers on Sunday which can lead to an interception.

The Packers currently rank 9th overall in pass rush according to PFF. DT Kenny Clark is graded out as 2nd in the NFL to only Aaron Donald, which is scary for Brady. With injuries to the interior of that Buccaneers O-line, expect to see Brady deal with pressure up the middle. I’m on this for 0.5U.

Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 Receiving Yards -114

Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The cubbard is bare in Green Bay this Sunday. Sammy Watkins will be out, Randall Cobb, Christian Watson, and Marcedes Lewis are all questionable after missing most of practice this week. Allen Lazard is battling an ankle injury but is expected to play. I’m pivoting to Robert Tonyan at a very low number.

The Tampa rush defense is one of the best in the league (9th in total rushing ypg) and could be difficult for GB to get going on the ground. Tonyan hit this number in week 1 and fell short in week 2 after building a large lead vs Chicago. Looking how this Tampa defense performed against opposing TE’s and I see Dalton Schultz had 7 receptions for 62 yards and Juwan Johnson had 4 for 40 yards. This line is 28.5 on all other books so I’m nabbing the lowest number for 1U

Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions

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