Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re getting treated to a very rare Tuesday Night Football as the Tennessee Titans make their return to the field against the Buffalo Bills. Both teams are undefeated, so someone will be leaving with their first loss. While the unusual circumstances have injected a degree of uncertainty, they may actually provide some value for props.
We’ve got plenty of thoughts on the side and total, which you can read in our game preview, but right now we’re going to be talking about some props. Player props can be some of the best spots to find edges, as oddsmakers have to hang lines for virtually every player and then we can pick our spots. Let’s dive in:
Josh Allen over 295.5 passing yards
Allen should be in for yet another big game on Tuesday. He has thrown for at least 311 yards in three of his four games, and in the one he didn’t he still had 288. The Bills have been letting him sling it, and with John Brown and Stefon Diggs he’s got two great deep threats who can help him rack up yards in a hurry.
Most importantly, I love the matchup here. Tennessee are weak in the secondary, and that’s definitely the way to attack them. The Titans have given up 30 points in back-to-back games, and considering they gave up 339 yards to Gardner Minshew earlier this season, I think Allen will have no problem reaching this total.
Stefon Diggs over 72.5 receiving yards
Correlated with the Allen play, I also like the over on Stefon Diggs. The Titans have obviously been unable to practice much due to their COVID-19 outbreak, and as such I think there should definitely be some communication issues with Tennessee’s defense. With the way Diggs can get down the field, even one coverage lapse will be enough to get us most of the way home on this total.
The Titans are allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season, and I don’t think any of their corners can hang with Diggs. Buffalo’s top wideout has at least 115 yards in two of his past three games, and the only time this season he hasn’t cleared 86 was when he had to go up against the Rams’ shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey.
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