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The home of our best NFL underdog picks from this week’s NFL games. Everyone loves an underdog, or so they say, but the public money tends not to agree. The casual bettor or the public money often comes for the star franchises, the favorites, those with the big names, regardless of home many points they have to concede to the barking dog. Finding the right spots to wager against the public money and be with the NFL underdogs both against the spread and straight up can be profitable. Our expert NFL handicappers are here to just do that, split the barking dogs from the barking mad, bringing you the best free NFL underdog picks from this week’s NFL action.
Neither of these teams have tasted defeat this season and seeing as a tight game will come as no surprise it looks worth backing the Rams with the points. After an overhaul of talent many feared Los Angeles could be in regression mode, particularly with them situated in the ultra-competitive AFC West, but Sean McVay’s team are holding their own so far with two solid wins. Jared Goff has been looking a much better player than he did last season, and the committee backfield seems to be working well for the Rams. Even with Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown questionable, Darrell Henderson looks capable of stepping up. Perhaps most impressive about Los Angeles though has been their defense, which has held both Dallas and Philadelphia to less than 20 points. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz both had substandard completion percentages, and Josh Allen could soon join them given that he isn’t particularly known for his accuracy. That signal-caller did throw four touchdowns last week however and has looked good so far, but then again anyone can look good against the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills still have something to prove, so taking the Rams is the best bet.
The Arizona Cardinals host the Detroit Lions here, and I love the underdog in this game. Detroit is 0-2 but it held double-digit leads in both games and this team is starting to get healthier. It looks like top receiver Kenny Golladay is going to return for this one, which is a massive upgrade to the offense. The Lions haven’t been able to stretch the field without him, and now that he’s back the vertical game should get much better. Now is the perfect time to sell high on the Cardinals, as the hype surrounding them is at an all-time high. I’m not giving them too much credit for beating lowly Washington at home this past week, and Kyler Murray has been far from perfect despite all the exciting plays. He has thrown interceptions in both weeks and is averaging an unimpressive 6.6 yards per attempt so far. I think the Lions are going to be able to keep this one close at the very least, and they may well win it outright.
It is another early-season battle between the two Super Bowl favorites, the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. They faced each other in Week 3 of last year, as well, and Kansas City came away with a 33-28 home victory. Now the Ravens have home-field advantage, which is the main reason why they are favored by 3.5 points. In a showdown featuring what are almost without debate the two best teams in the league, getting more than a field goal could really come in handy. That is why the smart bet is on the Chiefs, who are 2-0 following a rout of visiting Houston and a road victory over the Chargers in overtime. Don’t be surprised if this comes down to a winning field goal by one of the two best kickers in football-either K.C.’s Harrison Butker or Baltimore’s Justin Tucker. In either case, 3.5 points would be enough for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 overall, 12-5-1 ATS in their last 16 on the road, 6-1 ATS in their last seven against opponents with winning records, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC. Baltimore is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home against opponents with winning road records. Take Kansas City and the points.
Our underdog NFL picks are our best picks against the sportsbook favorites from this week’s NFL games. An underdog is a sleeper, a team that is not expected to win by the sportsbooks, they’ll be the team with the bigger odds in the Moneyline, and the team receiving points against the spread. The NFL is built on parity, and we’ve seen teams go from losing records to Super Bowl champions within the space of a year, with draft orders and salary caps both designed to level the playing field, anyone can beat anyone in the NFL, with upsets a regular occurrence.
2019 was the year of the NFL underdog, with underdogs going 131-116-9 against the spread and 90 underdogs winning straight up, both of which show a profit.
Finding these spots isn’t easy with most NFL spreads set at around a field goal, but our expert NFL handicappers spend hours researching every NFL game of the season. We take an in-depth look at key statistics, matchups, match conditions, home and road form, team news, and much more to determine the best NFL underdogs picks for this week’s NFL games.
The common question with NFL underdogs picks is why would I bet on the team most people, including the sportsbooks, think, will lose, and the simple answer to that is the value in which they can offer. The majority of the public money, and by that we mean the casual fan or bettor, will be taken by the bigger, better team, the marquee teams, and players, and these are often overbet throughout the week. With this, we can often find ourselves getting a good value bet on the Moneyline or too many points to pass up against the spread.
The NFL is built on parity, with the likes of a salary cap and the NFL draft in place to ensure every team has a chance to win and to improve, and with this, upsets in the NFL are common.
It’s also important to remember that an NFL team only wants to win by 1, while it is more comfortable to win by 20, you’ll see coaches change their strategy if they’re up by three scores in the fourth quarter to secure that victory. In doing this, we see countless times a season where a team that’s +10 on the spread, for example, covering the spread late on despite being comfortably outplayed, with the opposing team just managing the clock.