What are our underdog NFL picks
Our underdog NFL picks are our best picks against the sportsbook favorites from this week’s NFL games. An underdog is a sleeper, a team that is not expected to win by the sportsbooks, they’ll be the team with the bigger odds in the Moneyline, and the team receiving points against the spread. The NFL is built on parity, and we’ve seen teams go from losing records to Super Bowl champions within the space of a year, with draft orders and salary caps both designed to level the playing field, anyone can beat anyone in the NFL, with upsets a regular occurrence.
2019 was the year of the NFL underdog, with underdogs going 131-116-9 against the spread and 90 underdogs winning straight up, both of which show a profit.
Finding these spots isn’t easy with most NFL spreads set at around a field goal, but our expert NFL handicappers spend hours researching every NFL game of the season. We take an in-depth look at key statistics, matchups, match conditions, home and road form, team news, and much more to determine the best NFL underdogs picks for this week’s NFL games.
Reasons to bet the NFL underdogs
The common question with NFL underdogs picks is why would I bet on the team most people, including the sportsbooks, think, will lose, and the simple answer to that is the value in which they can offer. The majority of the public money, and by that we mean the casual fan or bettor, will be taken by the bigger, better team, the marquee teams, and players, and these are often overbet throughout the week. With this, we can often find ourselves getting a good value bet on the Moneyline or too many points to pass up against the spread.
The NFL is built on parity, with the likes of a salary cap and the NFL draft in place to ensure every team has a chance to win and to improve, and with this, upsets in the NFL are common.
It’s also important to remember that an NFL team only wants to win by 1, while it is more comfortable to win by 20, you’ll see coaches change their strategy if they’re up by three scores in the fourth quarter to secure that victory. In doing this, we see countless times a season where a team that’s +10 on the spread, for example, covering the spread late on despite being comfortably outplayed, with the opposing team just managing the clock.