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Best player prop bets for Sunday’s NBA slate: It's Dame time

Best player prop bets for Sunday’s NBA slate: It's Dame time

The final day of the regular season has finally arrived and brought with it a monster 15 game slate. Its has an exciting season so far and we seem set for another drama filled day. With matchups between the Warriors and the Grizzlies and the Wizards against the Hornets pitting two teams with identical records against each other, tonight’s action could have plenty of playoff implications.

As always you can find full game previews for tonight’s action here. Now lets take a look at the last four player prop selections for this regular season.

Damian Lillard over 29.5 points (-108)

These seem the type of moments that we see the best of Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers cannot afford to lose here, otherwise they will be dragged into the play in tournament and could risk missing the playoffs. Lillard does not seem ready to make that happen. He has recorded 30 or more in seven straight games and is coming into this after dropping 41 on the Phoenix Suns.

Denver is involved in a battle for the third seed and will not be holding back either. Facundo Campazzo is the player most likely to be matched up against Lillard, but he is undersized. Lillard loves to pull up from deep and without a long defender contesting his shots, he could be very efficient here. This is not the type of game Lillard will suddenly go quiet in.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers.

Jonas Valanciunas over 29.5 points + rebounds (-115)

Tonight’s game between the Grizzlies and the Warriors has major playoff implications, so these two teams are likely to leave it all on the floor here. The one clear advantage the Grizzlies have over the is on the inside with Jonas Valanciunas in the paint. The Lithuanian big is averaging 22 points and 12 rebounds over the last week and has cleared the combined 30 points and rebounds mark in each of his last four games. Against the Warriors this season he is averaging 14.5 points and 15.5 rebounds in just 26 minutes of action. If he gets closer to the 30 minutes per game that he has been playing recently, this line should clear comfortably.

The Warriors will likely use Kevon Looney against him, but he only averages four points per game this season and cannot stretch the floor, leaving Valanciunas in the paint to pick up defensive boards. Rudy Gobert recently managed 16 boards against the Warriors, and he should be in line with something similar. Based on his recent play, the 14 points seems a given.

Kristaps Porzingis over 2.5 made threes (+140)

In two games this season against the Timberwolves, Porzingis has been able to hit three shots from deep on each occasion. Having managed to knock down three in his last game against the Raptors, there is no reason to believe he could not keep that going here, especially since this game has standing implications for the Mavericks.

With the playoffs around the corner, it seems unlikely that Porzingis would step into the paint to challenge Karl-Anthony Towns, so look for him to spend more time on the perimeter. Over the last 10 games the Timberwolves are 18th in opponent three pointers made, so he should have plenty of opportunities tonight.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves.

Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 rebounds (+106)

Another prop selection from the same game, as these are some of the most predictable line ups on todays slate. Jusuf Nurkic will be up against Nikola Jokic tonight which could lead to him having to spend a lot of time away from the rim, especially on the defensive end. Jokic is a player that can hurt opposing bigs from anywhere on the floor, and with Nurkic proving to be a brick wall in the paint, the Serbian big man could look to do his damage from outside.

With less time in the paint, Nurkic may continue to struggle rebounding against the Nuggets. In his one game against them this season, he only managed 7 boards in 29 minutes of action. He has only recorded double digit boards once in his last four games and may not have the chance to do that here either. With Jokic phenomenal at drawing fouls too, foul trouble could be a factor for this line as well.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers.

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and ‘NBA prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

Last updated: Sun 16th May 2021

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