Best Player Props for Saturday's MLB Slate: Lopez shrinks Giants

Pablo Lopez player props
Photo of John Hyslop

John Hyslop


Show Bio

You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

The MLB slate is packed full Saturday with 15 games on the board starting at 1:10pm ET. That means there are player props all over the place and specifically, pitcher strikeout props. They’re easy to hit if you know what to look for and I found two for today that are worth betting. We’re about that action and here’s what I’m on today.

Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 15 games today.

Pablo Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Line available at publishing at BetMGM

Pablo Lopez should not be seeing any more 4.5 strikeout props moving forward. Even if it’s juiced up like it is today, depending on opponent, it is worth taking. At -145, there is a 59.1% implied probability which is too low according to my projections.

Through four starts this season, Lopez has hit this number three of four times. The only time he didn’t do it was on opening day and he had four strikeouts that day. On the season, he is sporting a 27.5% strikeout rate according to FanGraphs. That is extremely high for a 4.5 prop.

he gets the Giants tonight who haven’t been great at the plate so far. In fact, they have been pretty bad. They are hitting .217 as a team and have only produced 74 runs on the season. Only six teams in MLB have been worse in that metric.

Lopez’s last start was against the Giants and he went six innings striking out nine. It’s not the best form to back a pitcher against the last team he faced, but in this situation, we’re getting a great number. Look for Lopez to sit at least five Giants down tonight.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants.

Chris Flexen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Line available at publishing at BetMGM

Chris Flexen player props

The Red Sox are a tough team to target with the strikeout prop but at 3.5 and even money, it’s worth the bet. The Red Sox have been one of the better scoring teams early in the season which is why this number is so low. The books are banking on Flexen not making it too long and not sitting guys down in those innings.

The thing is, they could be right and we could easily see Flexen strike out at least four Red Sox today. He’s gone at least five innings in every start this season and has struck out at least four batters in two of his three starts. The game he didn’t, he struck out three against the Houston Astros who are a team that has one of the lower strikeout percentages in MLB.

He should see a good mix of Red Sox that have a higher than 20% strikeout rate in day games today. Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec, JD Martinez, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, Marwin Gonzalez and Xander Bogaerts are all over 20%. Cordero is above 40% and Dalbec is over 30%. Flexen is set up to strikeout at least four Red Sox today.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and ‘MLB prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook


Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets No Matter What

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet of $5

Get $150 in bonus bets no matter what

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at



Virginia Bettors- Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.



Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF



Bet $5, Get $200 in Free Bets Instantly

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 in free bets no matter what!

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as free bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at



Get $100 in Free Bets, for 5 Days Straight

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook


Your First Cash Bet Is On Caesars Up To $1,250

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

If you lose, you get 100% of your stake back as a Bet Credit - up to $1,250.

AND win or lose, you’ll also get 1,000 Reward Credits® and 1,000 Tier Credits.

21+. Terms and conditions apply.



Get $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets, if you Don't Win

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you don't win

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.



Get up to $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight


Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.



Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.



Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy


First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply