The Miami Heat’s sensational playoff form continued with their second straight upset win over the Boston Celtics in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. They started the 2023 NBA Playoffs as the #8 seed after losing their first game in the play-in tournament against Atlanta before beating the Bulls to make the field for the first round. They have not looked back since, eliminating #1 seed the Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games before knocking out #5 seed the New York Knicks. The Heat kept up their red-hot form in the conference finals, with road wins by scores of 123-116 and 111-105 in Boston.
The Celtics have had to battle hard in these playoffs, beating the Hawks in 6 games and the 76ers in 7, and they need to find it in themselves to rally again as the series heads to Florida on Sunday. Let’s take a look at the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Game 3.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Celtics -2.5, Heat +3
Total points over/under: 213.5-214 points
Money line odds: Celtics -150, Heat +132
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat expert picks
Celtics vs Heat point spread pick: Celtics -2.5 (-115, BetMGM)
There is no player like Jayson Tatum and no team like the Boston Celtics in these NBA Playoffs. For the second straight game Tatum disappeared in the 4th quarter in Game 2, going 0-for-3 from the field and failing to grab a rebound. The Celtics were up by as many as 11 points, but then Grant Williams taunted Jimmy Butler and the Heat went on to win by 6. Boston finds itself now down 2-0 in the series after 2 home games, and coming back from that is almost impossible. As a franchise they’re 0-5 in Conference Finals when trailing 2-0 in a series, and 2 of those losses came against the Miami Heat. So do they stand a chance in Game 3? They’re just 1-4 SU/ATS in the last 5 meetings with Miami, but have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games at Kaseya Center.
If there was any doubt on who the best postseason performer has been so far, Jimmy Butler put all those debates away with Friday’s performance. He finished with 27 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. He is a man of many talents and the Heat are utilizing him to the maximum of his potential. The Heat are undefeated in 5 home games this postseason and yet the oddsmakers have them as up to 3-point underdogs for this game. When going up 2-0 in a series, Miami has the most wins without a series loss in NBA history at 19-0. They’ll be feeling good about themselves the rest of the way, but is this series already over like some people are saying? I’m not so sure about that. The Celtics are too good to get swept. At the start of this series I thought it would go at least 6 or 7 games and I still believe that. In order for that to happen, the Celtics have to wake up. I’m not losing faith in them, and they did win once in Miami during the regular season. I’ll go with the road team to cover in Game 3.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics predictions
Celtics vs Heat over/under total pick: Under 214 (-110, DraftKings)
The over cashed just barely in Game 3 by a single point, and the slower pace was noticeable by both teams. I expect to see more of that from now on, especially in the next 2 games in Miami, where we saw only 215 and 193 points in the regular-season meetings at Kaseya Center between these teams. Boston’s best chance of winning should be if they keep Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and co. from scoring double-digit points. They currently have the 5th-best defensive rating in road games this postseason, which has led to 4 wins and just 2 losses in 6 away games.
Their pace is also ranked 9th in those games at just 97.5 possessions per game, so it’s pretty clear which strategy works best for them in these situations. Miami also likes to slow things down at home, and the Heat are 11th in pace this postseason, averaging 96.1 possessions while having the 2nd-best defensive rating at 102.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. The under has cashed in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Sunday, so let’s hope that trend continues. I’m taking the under.
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