Matt Selz
NASCAR
Show Bio
The Coca-Cola 600 is on tap for Sunday night. A night cap of a triple-header of racing that features the F1 Monaco GP and the Indy 500, which we have betting previews for as well. This is the longest race in NASCAR at a whopping 600 miles, 400 laps, and that is a huge test of man and machine.
Betting Strategies for Charlotte Motor Speedway
Prior to having cars on track for the Coca-Cola 600, there are a few tricks to targeting who to bet. There are more tips to add to that once we see cars practice and qualifying — though lines will change after that too. Firstly, who’s shown good speed this year at similar tracks. What are the similar tracks to Charlotte? Kansas, Las Vegas, Auto Club, and Darlington are all reasonable comparisons since they ran the same tires and similar setups there. Secondly, we’re looking for drivers with good track histories in this race specifically. Thirdly, we want to focus on drivers for quality teams, in quality equipment. Like I said, it’s a grueling race. Cars that haven’t held up at shorter races won’t be holding up Sunday night either. Once cars have been on track, we can look at qualifying spots and which ones have shown success. In the last 10 Coke 600s, five winners have been from the top-five with four being from the pole. Six have been from the top-10 with eight being from the top-15. Long run speed will also be key this week as we can expect runs to last for at least 50 laps, assuming tires don’t go flat.
All odds taken from the DraftKings Sports at time of publishing.
Coca-Cola 600 Outright Winners
Kyle Busch (+550)
Busch won the Coca-Cola 600 three years ago and has been finding his speed in the 18-car of late. Over the last five races this year, Busch has the second-best average finish in the field and he’s posted four top-fives in the last five runnings of this race. In fact, last year when it was four Hendrick cars up front, Busch was the only one to break up a 1-2-3-4 HMS finish. Accounting for prior tracks this year, He was fast last week at Texas and should’ve won at Vegas as well.
Best Bet: William Byron (+1200)
Byron just seems to be the guy in the Hendrick garage that shows up fast. Each week. In Green Flag Speed for the 2022 season, he ranks fourth indicating the car has been fast all season. He also ranks fifth in the field in average running position over the last five races this season. While Byron finished P4 here last year, he posted 51 fastest laps — second most in the field. It’s true the results haven’t been there of late for Byron, but it’s not for lack of speed.
Christopher Bell (+2500)
Do you know who ranks first in average finish over the last five races? That would be Bell. Do you know who has finished in the top-10 four times in the last five intermediate races? That would be Bell. The driver of the number-20 car also ranks eighth this year in Green Flag Speed. The Toyotas as a whole are figuring out the speed in the next gen car and Bell has been the best example of that recently. That gives them and him a great shot to compete in the Coke 600.
Bubba Wallace (+7000)
There’s a reason he’s a long shot. His best finish in this race was his P14 last year, in this 23XI car. However, like we said for Bell and Busch, Wallace has had speed of late. He finished P10 at Kansas last race and led the field in Quality Passes. What are Quality Passes? Simply put, they are passing a top-15 car under green flag conditions. He posted 60 such passes in a 267-lap race because of the speed in the car and the errors of his pit crew. If he has similar speed, and his crew works better, this bet has legs.
Coke 600 Best Prop Bets
Bubba Wallace Top-10 finish (+200)
Everything we just said about Wallace for the outright win holds here. He finished P10 last race at a comparable track and has been gaining speed each week. Needing him only to finish in the top-10 to double your money is worth it.
Austin Dillon Top-10 finish (+150)
Dillon has been a bit under-the-radar at intermediate tracks the last couple of seasons. He finished P6 in this race last year, has two top-10s in the last five races here and has an average finish of 9.8 in the last five intermediate tracks in this next gen car. That’s enough to warrant putting some money on AD to finish in the top-10 once more this week.
Chris Buescher Top-10 finish (+300)
Buescher has finished in the P11 or better in the last three-straight Coke 600s. Regardless of what the rest of his season has been going like, he still shows up for this race. There’s not been much to go on this year, but given how he’s performed in prior years here, that’s enough for this special race.
Best Bet: Chase Elliott Top-5 finish (-135)
I’m typically not a fan of making bets with negative lines but this case is different. Elliott has an average finish of 4.2 in the last five Coke 600s. Adding to that, he’s finished P4, P3, P2 in the last three runnings. This is Hendrick’s race to shine — you literally have to drive through the HMS parking lot to get to Charlotte Motor Speedway — and it’ll be another week of Elliott contending for a win.
Kevin Harvick Top Ford (+550)
Harvick is a guy that just grinds through races. That’s what’s needed here. Coming in, he’s one of only four drivers to post four top-10s or more in the last five races here. He’s also the only Ford to do that. He ranks second in average finish over the last five intermediate races in this next generation car, he’s the top Ford. These are too good of odds to pass up on him given the current momentum and track history.
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