College basketball Monday three-team mega parlay (+1139): It’s not heaven; it’s Iowa
Big Mondays have not yet begun in the college basketball season, and there are only 14 total games on today’s Division I schedule. Still, there is enough to work with when forming a mega parlay. We nailed it yesterday at +1022 thanks to Xavier, Arizona, and North Carolina. It’s also worth noting that we cashed mega parlays in the NFL and NBA on Sunday, as well!
Let’s keep the momentum going at the start of this new week, relying on Florida, Iowa, and Alcorn State.
Florida -20 (-110)
Iowa -9.5 alternate spread (+240)
Alcorn State +32.5 (-110)
For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread (one on an alternate spread) and one underdog plus the points. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Florida -20 over Texas Southern (-110)
Florida lost to Oklahoma 74-67 on the road last week, shooting just 16.7 percent from 3-point range and committing a season-high 16 turnovers. But that was a true road game for the Gators, and now they return home to welcome Texas Southern. The Tigers are winless through 7 games, all on the road, with their most recent one coming by 27 points at Louisiana Tech. They are led by John Walker III (12.6 ppg) and Joirdon Karl Nicholas (11.1 ppg), but they struggle to get consistent production outside of those two. Thanks in large part to Colin Castleton’s elite rim protection, Florida ranks as the 13th-most efficient defense per KenPom while holding opponents to an effective field-goal percentage of only 44.2. The Gators allow a mere 51.5 ppg on 34.9 percent shooting in home games. UF will be eager to bounce back from its first loss and make a statement, and Texas Southern is a team it can beat…by a lot.
Check out our Texas Southern vs Florida preview
Iowa -9.5 alternate spread over Illinois (+240)
Keegan Murray is questionable for this one, but it sounds like he has a good chance of playing and Iowa is capable of winning this one by double-digits if he is on the floor. Murray is second in the country in scoring at 24.6 points per game. The Hawkeyes will be tested by Illinois big man Kofi Cockburn, but they have fared fairly well in post-up defense this year — ranking in the 89th percentile in that department per Synergy. That’s impressive considering that they just played against Purdue, which ranks 4th nationally in post-up frequency. Iowa held Trevion Williams and Zach Edey to 19 points on just 6-of-16 shooting despite losing 77-70 (its only loss of the 2021-22 campaign so far). On the other end, Iowa’s offense is clicking to start the year — ranking 5th in offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Hawkeyes lead the country in offensive turnover rate, while Illinois ranks just 307th in taking care of the ball.
Check out our Illinois vs Iowa preview
Alcorn State +32.5 over Houston (-110)
I’m generally not a huge fan of massive spreads, but 32.5 points should be enough for Alcorn State. The Braves have already faced Gonzaga and lost that game against the No. 1 team in the nation (at the time) by a somewhat respectable 27 points. They also fell to Washington State by a modest 18 and at Southern Illinois by 3. Alcorn State has plenty of depth, with nine players logging at least 13.7 minutes per game. It’s not like the underdogs are going to get run out of the gym in the second half. In case they need a backdoor cover during garbage time, they will have the legs to do it. The Cougars have only two guys averaging more than 10.6 ppg, so they may not run up the score to the extent that they win by 33 points or more.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Monday