Ricky Dimon
NCAAB
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Colleges are on Christmas break, but basketball never stops. There are a couple of huge slates this week, and Wednesday is one of them. Among the teams taking the court are Duke, UCLA, Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Texas, and Texas Tech. Although coronavirus-related cancellations continue to put a blemish on the schedule, there is more than enough to work with as we try to formulate a winning mega parlay.
Arizona ML (+112)
Clemson ML (+128)
Lipscomb vs LSU over 143.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: 823
For this parlay we are going with one favorite against the spread and two underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Arizona ML over Tennessee (+112)
Arizona has been dominant this season, starting 11-0 and winning 9 times by double digits. The Wildcats quickly jumped from unranked to No. 6 in the country with impressive wins over Michigan, Illinois, and Wichita State. A trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee will be one of Arizona’s toughest games yet, so we will be able to see just how good the ‘Cats are on Wednesday. Tennessee has been solid this season, starting 8-2 and ranking 19th in the latest AP poll. The Volunteers’ most recent loss came in overtime to Texas Tech during the Jimmy V Classic in Madison Square Garden. That game could have gone either way, as both teams struggled offensively and only combined for 10 threes the entire way. Tennessee handled SC Upstate in its last game via a 96-52 decision last Tuesday. Of course, SC Upstate sure isn’t Arizona. The Wildcats have looked like the best team in the country on multiple occasions, so a minor upset shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Check out our Arizona vs Tennessee preview
Clemson ML over Virginia (+130)
The Tigers rank fifth in the country in three-point percentage, which will be very useful against Virginia’s defense. This also isn’t a classic UVA defense, as the Cavaliers rank 50th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency so far this year. Obviously they could improve throughout the season, but 50th would be the lowest-ranked defense for Virginia since 2011. On the other end of the court, Clemson’s defense is somewhat similar to UVA’s. The Tigers limit shots near the rim, forcing their opponents to make jump shots to beat them. That is where the Wahoos could struggle; they are shooting 32.1 percent from three this year – good (or bad!) for 220th in the country. It’s unlikely this is going to change all that much as the season progresses, as Virginia isn’t even generating high-quality attempts. Per Shot Quality, this team ranks 185th in offensive shot quality. Clemson winning outright really wouldn’t be that big of an upset.
Check out our Clemson vs Virginia preview
Lipscomb vs LSU over 143.5 (-110)
This will likely be a high-possession game, as both squads rank inside the top 70 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. There is also a lot to like from a matchup perspective that favors the over. Lipscomb is turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Even more concerning is that those turnovers are turning into quick points for the opponents. Per Haslametrics, the Bisons rank 349th in giving up potential quick points off of steals — which is measured by opponent shot attempts given up within the first 10 seconds after a steal. LSU ranks seventh in generating potential quick points off of steals. We can use the game between Lipscomb and Florida State as a reference point, as FSU ranks No. 1 in generating quick points off of steals. The ‘Noles scored 97 points against Lipscomb, so if LSU can replicate that then the over is off to a great start. On the other end of the court, if nothing else Lipscomb should be able to get at least some points off of 3-pointers. Only 6 teams allow a higher 3-point attempt rate to their opponents than LSU, and the Bisons can shoot threes well — ranking 38th in 3-point percentage.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Wednesday
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