College Football Week 11 parlay at mega +612 odds for Wednesday 11/8: Toledo rolls under the lights
After a terrific Tuesday night in the MAC in which I cashed my mega parlay at +612 odds, we have another trio of MACtion games on Wednesday night to help us move into Week 11 of the college football season. While the best matchups of the week are on Saturday, these games are compelling and have serious conference implications on the line for one of the most chaotic conferences in college football this season. These games might not be on everyone’s radar, but we can still win on them!
You can read all our college football predictions, but without any further ado, here’s my 3-leg NCAAF parlay with a potential payout of +612 odds. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Toledo -18.5 (-110)
Miami (OH) -17.5 (-105)
Bowling Green -9.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Toledo Rockets -18.5 over Eastern Michigan Eagles (-110)
Toledo is pretty clearly the best team in what has been a down year in the MAC. The Rockets defense is excellent, having not allowed more than 17 points in 3 consecutive games, plus they are 30th nationally in defensive PPA since Week 5. Furthermore, Toledo sits at 18th in points yielded per quality possession since the last week of September, which is going to put a lot of pressure on Eastern Michigan’s offense. On the other side, EMU’s offense is outside the top 90 in PPA, success rate and explosiveness since Week 5, failing to create many scoring opportunities. The Eagles also struggle mightily on pass plays, as they rank 122nd in pass play PPA since the end of September. That is not a good trait to have against Toledo’s impressive secondary, which is in the top 25 in passing success rate allowed during that span.
Toledo seems to be the most complete team in this conference this season, and while the Rockets typically have a game or two where they trip over themselves under Jason Candle – I’m not sure this is the game. I expect the Rockets to run away with this one in their final home game of the season so let’s lay the points with the hosts.
Check out our full Toledo vs Eastern Michigan predictions
Miami (OH) RedHawks -17.5 over Akron Zips (-110)
Akron finally won a MAC game last week, taking down rival Kent State in a thriller. While that is a nice win for the Zips, the Golden Flashes are one of the worst teams in the nation, and the Zips aren’t much better. Akron will have its hands full with Miami of Ohio, a team challenging for a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Akron is 0-5 on the road this season, but the Zips have coughed up 27 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games, while scoring 14 or fewer points in 4 of its last 5 contests. This game is already a mismatch, but I lean even more toward Miami (OH) with Akron coming off a huge win in a rivalry game.
The Redhawks dominated a good Ohio side by a 30-16 score in Athens last weekend, winning outright as underdogs of over a touchdown. Miami has covered in 7 of its past 8 games overall, including both games this season as a double-digit favorite. Miami’s offense isn’t terribly efficient without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, but it can run the ball pretty well, and it scores a respectable 29.8 points per game despite its struggles in the pass game without Gabbert. The strength for this RedHawks team is its defense, allowing just 19.0 ppg, which is bad news for a Zips offense which ranks 125th or lower in the nation in total yards (293.9), rushing yards (94.2) and points (17.1) per game this season.
Bowling Green Falcons -9.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes (-110)
The Bowling Green Falcons swoop into Ohio looking to come away with a win in order to achieve bowl eligibility. Bowling Green hung on for a 24-21 win against Ball State last Wednesday and has now rattled off 3 consecutive victories, covering in 2 of those outings. This game is similar to the October 21 game against Akron, another bad MAC team. Bowling Green was favored by 7 points in that one, and came away with a 41-14 victory. QB Connor Bazelak should be too much for the Golden Flashes to handle, even on their own field.
The Flashes have really struggled after losing several coaches to other programs while being gutted in the transfer portal. They are 1-8 on the season and coming off a 31-27 loss to rivals Akron, losing the Wagon Wheel trophy. Kent State is 0-8 SU against FBS teams this season, while going 1-6-1 ATS in those games. This is a team that hasn’t covered since September 16 against Central Connecticut State of the FCS, too, so let’s back the Falcons in this one.
Read our full Bowling Green vs Kent State predictions