Daily March Madness public money update: Bettors moving to the over for Baylor vs. Gonzaga

The Gonzaga Bulldogs celebrate after defeating the Creighton Bluejays during the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse
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Andrew Ortenberg

NCAAB · 1 year ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

March Madness is officially winding down, and with the NCAA Tournament underway, we’ve been bringing you a special edition of our usual public money update each day. With an event, this large betting volume is off the charts, and the public can actually move markets this time of year. It’s important to keep track of what the heavy public sides are, whether you’re looking to tail or fade that movement.

Check out our March Madness hub to stay on top of everything that goes on. Also, be sure to check out our picks on the side and total for every single game in the tournament. But first, let’s dive into what we’re seeing in terms of public trends heading into the National Championship Game:

Baylor vs. Gonzaga point spread (Gonzaga -4.5)

Oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as a 4.5-point favorite for the final game of the tournament. So far, the public has been pretty evenly split and there’s no clear lopsided direction on the point spread. 54 percent of the bets and 51 percent of the money are laying the points with Gonzaga, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.

On Sunday 59 percent of the bets were on Gonzaga, but 54 percent of the money wagered was on Baylor plus the points. That means that although there have been more bets on Baylor over the past 24 hours, the bigger money ones have been on the Bulldogs. But either way, right now there’s no consensus. Considering how good both Baylor and Gonzaga have looked during their respective runs, it’s hard to argue with the indecision. That being said, we’re taking the points here with Baylor in what should be a really tight game.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga total (O/U 159.5)

Things are starting to shift in the direction of the over. Yesterday, 59 percent of the bets were on the over, but 61 percent of the money was on the under. Now still 59 percent of the bets are on the over, but 56 percent of the money is as well. With the money going from 61 percent under to 56 percent over, we’ve seen some very large bets come in on the over. That’s not too surprising, as recreational bettors often gravitate toward overs, especially in big games.

Gonzaga’s offense is historic, and even when they played a really slow-paced team like UCLA, the total still went flying over. Baylor just played a really slow-paced team as well, and their semifinal game against Houston also soared over. This one has the potential to be an epic shootout, so we’re taking the over as well.

Baylor vs. Gonzaga money line (+165/-210)

The public often likes to back favorites on the spread but underdogs on the money line, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing here. 57 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money are on Baylor on the money line. That being said that’s down significantly from Sunday when 66 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money were on Baylor, so Gonzaga has definitely taken some recent money line action.

Money line underdogs have been cashing left and right all tournament, why not one more in the last game? The public certainly isn’t going to waste one last chance at a big payday, and we can’t blame them.

Prop – Corey Kispert over 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists

The most heavily bet on prop for the National Championship Game, per DraftKings’ numbers, is this Kispert one. Kispert had 25 PRAs in his last game against UCLA, and 28 in his one before that against USC, so the public is going right back to the well. Make sure to check out our best prop bets for the game, and we just might have one involving Kispert as well.

The next most bet on props are Jared Butler over 3.5 assists, Kispert over 16 points, Drew Timme to make the first basket (+350), and Joel Ayayi over 13.5 points.

Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

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