The quarterfinal lineup at the French Open will be set upon the conclusion of Monday’s schedule, on which a showdown between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka is the headline match. However, the value is found on the men’s side.
I’m 7-2 over the past 3 days and 17-7 for the tournament, so let’s keep the momentum going with my best bets on the Day 9 schedule.
French Open best bet: Felix Auger-Aliassime -2.5 games over Alejandro Tabilo (-120)
Alejandro Tabilo could not have enjoyed a friendlier path to his first-ever Grand Slam fourth round. The left-hander defeated world #78 Kamil Majchrzak, got a walkover from an injured Valentin Vacherot and then beat world #318 Moise Kouame. Tabilo will face a much, much tougher draw in the form of Felix Auger-Aliassime on Monday. In this upset-filled men’s draw, Auger-Aliassime is without question one of the most realistic title contenders remaining. The world #6 is a 2-time major semifinalist (both at the U.S. Open) and has reached the quarters at 2 other slams. He is 1 win away from his first quarterfinal in Paris after defeating Daniel Altmaier in a fifth-set tiebreaker, Roman Andres Burruchaga in a routine 4-setter and Brandon Nakashima in a tight 4-setter. For me, Auger-Aliassime checks all the boxes in this particular matchup.
French Open best bet: Frances Tiafoe ML over Matteo Arnaldi (-110)
You could say that there are 2 different versions of Frances Tiafoe: the one at smaller tournaments who isn’t always motivated and can lose to just about anyone on any given day, and the one at Grand Slams who puts forth a massive effort time in and time out – often with great success. The American is once again up to his usual tricks on the big stage, having booked a spot in the French Open round of 16 for the second time (he reached the quarterfinals last year). Tiafoe is also a 2-time U.S. Open semifinalist and an Australian Open quarterfinalist.
The world #22 has played some tough matches this fortnight, but so has Arnaldi. In fact, the Italian needed a fifth-set tiebreaker to outlast Raphael Collignon on Saturday night. Tiafoe is the much higher-ranked player and the much more experienced player in general — especially at Grand Slams. He should be a bigger favorite.
French Open best bet: Matteo Berrettini -2.5 games over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (-125)
Is Juan Manuel Cerundolo mentally and physically fried at this point? You have to think he is. Cerundolo (and Jannik Sinner’s own physical struggles) turned this tournament upside down when the Argentine stunned the world #1 in a 5-setter. Two days later, Cerundolo survived an almost 6-hour marathon against Martin Landaluce. Even though Berrettini also battled through a 5-setter against Francisco Comesana in the third round, the Italian will certainly be in better shape. After all, his first 2 rounds were routine. Moreover, the Italian brings an extensive history of Grand Slam success to the table. He has reached a Wimbledon final, the semis of the U.S. Open and Australian Open and the quarters at Roland Garros. Berrettini should win this one – and should probably even win it big.
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