Divisional weekend has arrived, and it features the best of the best in the NFL. Both top seeds are coming off byes, and the remaining six are all riding the momentum of a postseason victory.
“This weekend’s average spread across all playoff games is 3.4 points, which is much closer than last weekend’s average of 6.1 points for the Wild Card games,” said BetMGM Trader Darren Darby. “These lines depict a closer, more competitive potential for each game.”
Historically, this is my favorite weekend of the entire season from an entertainment standpoint. I believe the quality of play is on par with what we will see on Championship Sunday, but we get double the action. That being said, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype and be overzealous with how many bets you make across all four games. My advice is to treat this like any other week, and take into strong consideration how sharp the lines are this late in the year.
“There are not a lot of secrets or mystical advice to uncover at this stage of the season,” said WynnBET Junior Trader John Manica. “The numbers are spot on.”
A quick recap of last week, which was one of our strongest this season at 5-2 with a net gain of 3.5 units. Despite the positive overall result, I can’t help but focus on the two losses, which were both late additions. After reflecting on my strategy earlier this week, I’d like to take a moment to rehash a valuable lesson that I need to do a better job of following. Stick to your strategy.
I felt very strongly about the initial five plays I gave out in the column on Thursday, then late market movements and some FOMO got me to the window on those final two plays Saturday afternoon (Bills ML/Josh Allen rush attempts SGP) and Sunday morning (Eagles +7.5), which both lost.
“Most of the time, your first instinct is correct and I always like to go down with my opinion as opposed to getting inundated with every statistical situation and trend available,” Manica added.
I’m not saying betting late is always a bad idea, as new information becomes available which changes your fundamental handicap on a certain game or situation. However, in this column especially, I need to do a better job of leading with my best stuff, and forgetting about the rest. I’m excited to fully absorb this lesson into next season’s NFL column, but for now, let’s focus on finishing strong this season.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
Sat. 4:30 pm ET
The Titans are a very tough team to handicap, as most of their games this season were played at less than full strength. However, they certainly have benefited from the bye and are as healthy as they’ve been in weeks. I don’t expect Derrick Henry to get a full workload in his first game back, but just his presence alone should help open up the passing game for Ryan Tannehill.
Regardless of how many carries King Henry receives, Cincinnati’s defensive line depth will be tested in this game. DT Larry Ogunjobi was placed on IR Monday and star DE Trey Hendrickson is on his way back from a concussion. Backup DT Josh Tupou is also nursing a knee injury. Hendrickson and Tupou are both trending towards playing, but keep an eye on their status this weekend.
Not surprisingly, Ryan Tannehill’s numbers are drastically better in games with both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in the lineup. When both guys play, Tannehill posted a 53% success rate on drop backs this season, which would be the highest rate in the league. He also has the top grade on play-action passes according to Pro Football Focus. That grade drops to 13th when Brown and Jones are both out.
Meanwhile, the other quarterback in this game has significantly less playoff experience, especially on the road. In fact, Joe Burrow has only played one road game since Thanksgiving, and 3 of his 4 lowest yards per attempt games this season have come away from home. Historically, quarterbacks making their first road playoff start have gone just 6-15 straight up and 9-12 against the number. It will be interesting to see how Joe Burrow handles himself in what should be a tough environment against a fierce Titans defense that has allowed just 58 total points (11.6 per game) since their bye in Week 13.
“The Titans are slightly underrated,” WynnBET Senior Trader Motoi Pearson said earlier this week, as noted in my opening lines column. “With them being healthy and getting the bye, that is very valuable. I believe this line may climb more throughout the week.”
The market has agreed with Pearson’s projection, as this spread has moved through the key number of 3 to 3.5. I would still play it there, but for slightly less than the 2 units I currently have invested at Titans -3. There’s a chance this gets back down to 3 by Saturday, as bookmakers have reported some professional money supporting Bengals +3.5.
Picks: Titans -3 -115 (2u)
*Bet Monday at FanDuel, Would play up to 1u at Titans -3.5
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Sat. 8:15 pm ET
My futures exposure on both sides is keeping me off this game, but the Jimmy G shoulder injury is something to monitor. I’m confident he will play, but the true severity of the injury is unknown, and with near-zero temperatures expected Saturday night at Lambeau Field, his range of motion could be limited. San Francisco is also dealing with injuries on defense. LB Fred Warner (ankle) and DE Nick Bosa (concussion) are both on track to play, which means this spread might continue to creep towards the Niners before kickoff.
Green Bay’s rushing defense has proven vulnerable this season (28th in explosive run rate), and they’ve also struggled with defending the tight end (25th in success rate, 32nd in the red zone). Those are the two strengths of the 49ers offense, which is why if you were to bet this game, the only option in my eyes is to take the points and hope Jimmy’s shoulder holds up.
Pick: No play, lean 49ers
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun. 3:00 pm ET
This game is a matchup nightmare for the Bucs, especially in the trenches along the offensive line. LT Tristan Wirfs (ankle) and C Ryan Jensen (ankle) both missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, while backup OT Josh Wells (quad) was limited both days. Keep an eye on the status of all three heading into the weekend. Tom Brady was one of the least sacked QBs in the NFL this season, but the Eagles got to him four times on Sunday, and as good as the Philly defensive front is, I believe the Rams are better.
“This will definitely not be a cakewalk for Tom and the Bucs,” said PointsBet Trading Analyst Michael Korn.
I’m also concerned about the Bucs’ secondary. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) didn’t play against the Eagles, forcing Tampa Bay to play a season-high 51 snaps with 3 safeties on the field against Philly. Murphy-Bunting returned to practice Thursday in a limited session, and his status is certainly one to monitor this weekend. If he can’t go, and the Bucs are forced to employ that 3-safety look again this week, I expect Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay to do a much better job taking advantage of it than Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni did on Sunday.
Stafford was flawless on Monday against the Cardinals and went 7-of-9 for 148 yards with a touchdown against the blitz. That’s noteworthy considering the Bucs’ defense has the highest blitz-rate in the league. Overall, Stafford has excelled when facing the blitz this season with the 3rd best completion rate and 7th highest yards per attempt.
Fading Brady in a playoff game is not a comforting feeling, but the timing looked just a bit off on Sunday against the Eagles. I expect the Rams’ pass rush to force Brady to rely on the quick passing game even more this week, which means rhythm and timing will be even more crucial.
Picks: Rams +3 -110 (2u); Rams ML +135
*Bet Tuesday at Caesars/SuperBook, would play 1u at Rams +2.5 and the ML down to +130
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sun. 6:30 pm ET
Bookmakers are expecting this to be the highest handle game of the week, which means the public will have a say in where the line closes. The early handle indicates Buffalo is the trendy side, and this line has steadily moved towards the Bills all week. In fact, I would not be shocked if it got close to a pick’em by Sunday afternoon, which is where I believe the Chiefs start to offer some value.
Josh Allen’s rush attempts prop is also on the table once again. It fell short last week, but he went over in yards, and I believe the handicap was correct. I think Patrick Mahomes’ rushing props also have value this week. In fact, whichever team is behind at halftime, the live rushing yards prop for that team’s quarterback becomes more valuable, as that team will go into hurry up mode in the second half and there will be more scrambling opportunities. I’m not officially giving out any props on my best bets card this week, but check Twitter for live updates during the game.
As noted in my opening lines column earlier this week, the total has caught my eye here. It ticked up earlier in the week to 55, but has now settled around 53.5. The numbers on defense have been stellar for both teams, but if you take a closer look, the Chiefs struggled to stop the elite quarterbacks on their schedule. They gave up a combined 62 points to Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, while feasting on the likes of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Big Ben (twice), Derek Carr (twice), Dak Prescott (without Cooper/Lamb) and Teddy Bridgewater.
The same can be said about the Bills, who got torched by Tom Brady and the Bucs in Week 14, then faced Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones (twice) down the stretch. I also believe this is finally the week where the Buffalo secondary noticeably misses CB Tre’Davious White.
In a game where both offenses are playing at an elite level, and the defenses might be a bit of a paper tiger, there is only one way to play it.
Pick: Over 53.5 -110
*Bet Thursday at MGM, line widely available at time of posting, would play up to 54
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Divisional Weekend Best Bets:
Titans -3 -115 (2u at FanDuel)
Rams +3 -110 (2u at Caesars)
Rams ML +135 (1u at SuperBook)
Bills/Chiefs o53.5 -110 (1u at MGM)
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Last Week: 5-2, +3.5u (Sides: 3-0 / Totals: 0-0 / Teasers: 1-0 / Parlays: 1-1)
2021 season: 51-46-2, -1.20u (Sides: 30-24-1 / Totals: 2-4 / Teasers: 18-16-1 / Parlays: 1-1)
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