Super Bowl LX kicks off this Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The New England Patriots enter Sunday’s contest as 4.5-point underdogs, and if they want any chance of taking down the Seattle Seahawks, they’ll need to limit Seattle’s star wide receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. It’ll be a tall task for this Patriots secondary, but the Ohio State product will likely be going up against Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez for most of the game, who is no slouch himself. Gonzalez has faced a slew of top receivers in his young career, and JSN will give him everything he can handle.
After looking through JSN’s performance this season as well as the Patriots’ pass defense, I’ve found a variety of Jaxon Smith-Njigba player props worth targeting in Sunday’s Big Game, so let’s get into it.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba best bet: Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
My favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba player prop for Super Bowl LX is for the star wide receiver to go under his receiving yards total. I know, I know, betting an Under isn’t always fun when it comes to NFL games, but I expect Patriots Head Coach Mike Vrabel to center his inner Bill Belichick by taking away the opposing team’s best player in big games. To be fair, the Pats have done a fairly good job at taking away opposing teams’ top WRs, as they’ve allowed just 60.3 receiving yards per game in their 20 contests this NFL season. During the postseason, Ladd McConkey went for 32, Jayden Higgins recorded 59 receiving yards, and Courtland Sutton mustered just 17 yards in the AFC Championship.
Now, JSN is a step above those wide receivers, but opposing wideouts have only cleared 95 receiving yards against the Patriots in 5 of their 20 games. 2 of those games came in Weeks 1 and 2 when Christian Gonzalez was on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, so opposing WRs have only cleared this line in 17% of Patriots games this season when Gonzo is on the field. The last time an opposing receiver cleared this line against New England was in Week 10, so they’ve gone 10 straight games without allowing 95+ yards to an opposing wideout. The Patriots defense has allowed just 138.3 passing yards per game this postseason and 193.5 yards per game during the regular season (9th in the NFL). This won’t be an easy matchup for Sam Darnold, and I expect JSN will be bottled up in a big way, which is why I’m betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110).
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba parlay picks: Under 94.5 Receiving Yards, 6+ Receptions and Over 23.5 2Q Receiving Yards (+585)
Although I expect the Patriots to keep JSN in check for most of the game, there are a few other player props that are worth targeting. Therefore, I’ve put together a Same Game Parlay featuring JSN props, and you can cash in on this SGP at +585 odds. The first leg is my best bet listed above, and I can’t see JSN clearing 95 total receiving yards against this Pats secondary. However, I do think there is value in targeting his total receptions. I expect the Seahawks will make things easy for Sam Darnold early, which could lead to short receptions for Seattle’s top wideout. Additionally, the First Team All-Pro has at least 6 receptions in 14 of Seattle’s 19 games this season. He failed to clear this line against the 49ers in the Divisional Round but has at least 6 catches in 6 of Seattle’s last 7 games.
The final leg of my JSN Same Game Parlay brings some juice because it’s not correlated to the first two picks, and that’s for JSN to go over his receiving yards total in the second quarter. Although I expect the Pats to contain him for most of the game, I can’t see a world where JSN doesn’t have at least one big catch. His Over/Under for his longest reception is 27.5, so he’s capable of clearing this line in one catch. Additionally, the second quarter has been where JSN has thrived this season. He’s targeted the most in the second quarter this season with 52 targets and 37 receptions, and the next highest quarter is the fourth, where he has 37 targets and 28 receptions. If there’s any quarter where JSN can get his, it’s the second. Therefore, I’m betting these three picks on Sunday: Under 94.5 Receiving Yards, 6+ Receptions and Over 23.5 2Q Receiving Yards (+585).
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