March Madness 5-12 seed upsets history and 2023 Matchup analysis

Max Abmas shoots a free throw
Photo of Caleb Wilfinger

Caleb Wilfinger

NCAAB

Show Bio

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC.

March Madness is finally here! After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA Tournament could be one of the best in recent memory. There is one question that many basketball fans ask before filling out their bracket each year: Which upsets will bust my bracket?

A common upset pick in most brackets every year is at least one #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed. This is a proven trend, as 12 seeds have defeated 5 seeds nearly 36% of the time in the first round since 1985. It pays to pick upsets and look for value with these matchups, and I expect that trend to continue this March.

Let’s take a look at some recent history in the 5-12 matchups, before analyzing which #12 seed has the best chance to continue that upset trend in March Madness 2023. Make sure you also check out our March Madness picks for every game throughout the NCAA tournament.

You can bet on all the college hoops action over at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has a great sign-up offer where you can bet $5 and instantly get $200 in bonus bets regardless of whether your team wins! Click here to take advantage and claim your bonus bets right now.

 

March Madness #5 vs #12 seed upset history

There have been 53 instances of a #12 seed knocking off a #5 seed since 1985, with this trend especially ratcheting up over the last decade. Last year, we saw Richmond knock off a red-hot Iowa team that had just won the Big Ten Tournament, and New Mexico State defeat UConn as a 6.5-point underdog. At least one #12 seed has advanced to the round of 32 in 13 of the last 15 NCAA Tournaments, with multiple 12-seeds advancing in 8 of those 13 years. Needless to say, this is a trend that should continue for years to come. Let’s take a look at this year’s crop of 5-12 matchups.

East Region: #5 Duke Blue Devils vs #12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

This is an interesting case of a team that would’ve been a public darling in this spot (Oral Roberts) going up against one of the nation’s most public teams (Duke). The Blue Devils are the biggest favorite out of all the #5 seeds, and it’s likely based on recent performance. Duke has looked like the ACC’s best team over the last month. While that isn’t saying much given how poor the league is this season, the Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season, particularly on the defensive end. However, this Oral Roberts offense should test Duke’s defense, as Max Abmas and the Golden Eagles can score inside and from beyond the 3-point arc. This should be an exciting contest from beginning to end, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Oral Roberts back in the round of 32.

If you’re looking to get more out of your bets, then Caesars is the sportsbook for you. It’s the only sportsbook with Caesars rewards AND has a great sign-up offer where you can get up to $1,250 back on your first bet! Click here to sign up.

 

South Region: #5 San Diego State Aztecs vs #12 Charleston Cougars

Given that Charleston won 31 games this season and was a mid-major darling for most of the year, I could see the Cougars being a popular pick to knock off the Mountain West’s best team. However, San Diego State profiles pretty well in this matchup. The Aztecs boast an elite defense that guards the perimeter really well, which is imperative against a Charleston team that attempts a ton of 3-pointers every game. San Diego State also has experienced leadership on offense with its veteran guards and strong post play. While I do think we see a close game here, I expect the Aztecs to survive and advance.

Check out our full March Madness guide for EVERY team!

West Region: #5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs #12 VCU Rams

This is a game that I see as being a popular choice in many brackets for a few reasons. The primary reason would be that Saint Mary’s is far from a public team and the WCC doesn’t exactly have a positive reputation among some college basketball fans (likely stemming from anti-Gonzaga sentiment). Additionally, VCU is a program that has been in this position before and pulled off an upset over a #5 seed — most notably in 2012 over Wichita State. From a matchup perspective, the Rams do square up nicely against Saint Mary’s, as both teams play at an extremely slow pace and play very good defense. VCU is elite at forcing turnovers, which is something that could be an issue for the Gaels backcourt to handle as we saw in recent losses against Gonzaga.

Midwest Region: #5 Miami Hurricanes vs #12 Drake Bulldogs

This is a matchup that I expect to be the most common 12-5 upset picked by the public and experts alike, and it’s easy to see why. As I mentioned in my Sweet 16 longshots column, Drake has won 16 of its last 18 games — including a dominant showing in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Per BartTorvik, the Bulldogs have been one of the 15 best teams in the nation over the last month — going 8-1 against the spread in those contests. This is a veteran team that is deep and experienced at all positions. Furthermore, they could be playing against a Miami team that is poor defensively and will likely be missing big man Norchad Omier in the interior. Drake is the shortest underdog on the board at most sportsbooks, and I expect the Bulldogs to move on.

Unibet has arrived, and you can get $100 in bonus bets by signing up right now. Click here to join Unibet and lock in their great new customer bonus.

 

Pickswise is the home of free College Basketball Picks and College Basketball Predictions. With top College Basketball picks available daily, including our College Basketball Best Bets. 

Virginia Bonuses

See All
BetMGM
EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Get $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don't Win + $25 Bonus Bet

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit

Place your first bet and get refunded up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you don't win

Plus receive a $25 Bonus Bet after placing your qualifying wager

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, OH, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, Nevada, New York or Ontario
FanDuel Sportsbook
Get a $1,000 No Sweat Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account

Make a first-time deposit of $10+, and then place your first real-money wager on FanDuel Sportsbook

New customers get their first bet paid back in bonus bets up to $1,000 if you lose!

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.
DraftKings
Bet $5+ any MLB Pre-Game ML And Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your Team Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Make your first deposit and bet $5+ on any pre-game ML

Get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $150 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com..
Unibet
Virginia Bettors- Get a $100 Free Bet

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.
bet365
Bet $1 on and Get $200 in Bonus Bets at bet365!

Register for a new bet365 account

Place qualifying bets of $1 or more

Get $200 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

New Customer Offer. Deposit required. Bonus Bets added to Bonus Bet Credits balance. Bonus Bet risk excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply. Must be physically located in VA.
WynnBet
Bet $100 & Get $100 Bet Credit

Register for a WynnBET account today.

Deposit & Wager $100 on any sports market (odds -120 or greater).

Get a $100 Bet Credit.

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
BetRivers
Get a $500 Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF
Caesars Sportsbook
Your First Cash Bet Is On Caesars Up To $1,250

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

If you lose, you get 100% of your stake back as a Bet Credit - up to $1,250.

AND win or lose, you’ll also get 1,000 Reward Credits® and 1,000 Tier Credits.

21+. Terms and conditions apply.
DraftKings
Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Create a new DraftKings Sportsbook account and make your first deposit (min $5)

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.
BetMGM
Get $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don't Win

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you don't win

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, Nevada, New York or Ontario
DraftKings
Get a +1000 Odds Boost for Any Golfer to Win The Masters

Create a New DraftKings Account

Make Your First Deposit Of $5+ Into Your Sportsbook Account

Following Sign Up, You’ll Be Issued With One (1) Single-Use +1000 Odds Surge Token For Any Golfer To Win Any Tournament

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer
Underdog Fantasy
First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply
Owners Box
First Time Deposit Bonus Up To $500

Sign up for a new DFS account with OwnersBox

User's first deposit will be matched up to $500 in site-credit

Join one of their Daily NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL contests

You must be at least eighteen (18) years of age to receive deposit bonuses, participate in Contests, or win prizes offered through OwnersBox Contests. In jurisdictions, territories, and locations where the minimum age for permissible use of Contests is greater than eighteen (18) years old, you must meet the age requirement in your local jurisdiction or territory.
TVG
Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.
TwinSpires
Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.