Caleb Wilfinger
March Madness is finally here! After a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA tournament could be one of the best in recent memory. There is one question that many basketball fans ask before filling out their bracket each year: Which upsets will bust my bracket?
Not only have #15 seeds reached the second weekend in each of the last 2 seasons, but a double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in 14 straight tournaments and 35 of 37 overall. Furthermore, 4 teams seeded 10th or worse have made it in each of the past 2 years. It pays to pick upsets and look for value with double-digit seeds, and I expect that trend to continue this March.
Let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets for which double-digit seeds will reach the Sweet 16 in March Madness 2023, but make sure you also check out our March Madness picks for every game throughout the NCAA tournament.
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March Madness Sweet Sixteen odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Only odds for #12-15 seeds are listed.
Drake (+500)
VCU (+610)
Charleston (+630)
Oral Roberts (+920)
Kent State (+570)
Furman (+800)
Iona (+980)
Louisiana (+1260)
UC Santa Barbara (+1200)
Montana State (+1300)
Kennesaw State (+1600)
Grand Canyon (+1600)
Princeton (+1300)
Colgate (+1500)
Vermont (+1800)
UNC Asheville (+4000)
March Madness 2023 Sweet Sixteen best bet: Drake Bulldogs (+500)
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March Madness 2023 Sweet 16 longshot bet: Furman Paladins (+800)
Outside of Drake, it’s pretty clear to me that Furman is the best value on the board in this market. The 13th-seeded Paladins are a deep and experienced group that shoot a ton of 3s and have the offense (33rd in adjusted efficiency at KenPom) to keep up with most teams in the field. Per KenPom, Furman has roughly a 35% chance to knock off Virginia, and #4 seeds with a 70% or lower chance to reach the Round of 32 represent 8 of the 16 first-round losses for #4 seeds in the last 20 years. Sitting at 34th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency outside the top 75, the Cavaliers profile closer to a #8 seed and shouldn’t be 6-point favorites over this veteran Furman group that has played with each other for 3+ years now.
Assuming the Paladins are able to knock off Virginia, they would either meet San Diego State or Charleston in Round 2. Furman’s defense is its weakness, but that wouldn’t matter as much against a slow-paced and offensively challenged Aztecs team. And if they get matched up against Charleston, that game would likely be hovering around a pick’em price — or potentially Charleston as a short favorite. Either way, the 8/1 payout would yield a better reward than if you were to do a money line rollover on Furman. The Paladins are certainly worth a shot at this price.
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