MLB Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox same game parlay (+300 odds) today 7/29: Willy Adames wreaks havoc

Milwaukee Brewers hitter Willy Adames
Photo of Mark Lammey

Mark Lammey

MLB · 1 week ago

Show Bio

I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

The Brewers entered the all-star break on a 3-game losing streak. However, they opened up the 2nd half of their season by taking 3 of 4 games from the Rockies and both of their games against the Twins. That’s allowed them to take control of the NL Central for now. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have done quite the opposite, as they’ve fallen to last place in the AL East. It’s unlikely anyone projected the Orioles to be above Boston at this point in the season. With so much going on between these teams, there are plenty of markets to target for this series opener. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Brewers -1.5 (-105)

Brewers – over 5.5 total runs (+115)

Willy Adames 2+ total bases (-115)

Parlay odds: +300

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-105) over Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox’s struggles have not only been surprising, but they’ve also been severe. They entered the all-star break losing their last 2 games by a combined score of 27-3. Then, their 1st game out of the break was the 28-5 loss that took the league by storm. They went on to get swept by the Blue Jays at home and were more recently upset by the Guardians at home. While they get to remain home once again for this series, there doesn’t seem to be much of an advantage in that regard.

The Sox have been getting smashed, but the Brewers have been bombing away. Since the all-star break, Milwaukee’s lineup has looked great. Despite a lackluster series finale, they still scored 25 runs in their series against the Rockies. They followed that up by producing 17 runs across 2 games against the Twins. Their most recent game was a 10-4 win off the back of 2 massive Rowdy Tellez home runs.

That type of power is what is lacking for the Red Sox. Rafael Devers remains on the injured list, and even J.D. Martinez is less than 100%. That coupled with a bad starting rotation is a recipe for disaster. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ rotation has gotten healthy and is as strong as ever. It won’t be ace Corbin Burnes tonight, but Brandon Woodruff would be the ace if he were in Boston. He’s allowed more than 2 runs just once in his 5 starts since returning from the injured list, and should continue that against a depleted Sox lineup.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox

Brewers – over 5.5 total runs (+115)

There’s a rather obvious correlation with the 1st leg of our same game parlay, hence why we’re going with such a steep number. However, there should still be no concern with the Brewers getting there. In their 6 games since the all-star break, they’ve scored at least 6 runs in 5 of them. That includes 3 games in which they scored at least 9 runs. Their 2 most recent games were at home, and they’ll now be going to one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. Fenway Park ranks 2nd for extra-base hits and 3rd for overall runs. 

There has also been double-digit winds blowing out during the Red Sox games all week, which is what has this game total listed as the highest one outside of Coors Field. If that wasn’t enough, the Brew crew are facing Boston rookie Brayan Bello. He just made his major league debut at the beginning of this month, and has been getting smashed. He’s had just 3 starts, allowing 4, 5 and 5 runs within 4.0 innings in each one. With the team losing all of those games by at least 4 runs, everything lineups perfectly between our first 2 legs.   

Don’t miss our YRFI/NRFI best bets for tonight – we’re on a 28-10 run!

Willy Adames 2+ total bases (-115)

One of the primary factors for the Brewers’ offensive success is hitter Willy Adames. While there is former MVP Christian Yelich and powerful Tellez, Adames seems to fly a bit under the radar. His 139 total bases is behind only Tellez on the team, but he’s accumulated them in far fewer games. He’s done so in just 77 games, while Tellez has needed 94. That’s good for an average of 1.81 total bases per game and a .460 slugging percentage. 

For some perspective, that’s the same average as Dansby Swanson and his 181 total bases, which is top-10 in the National League. Adames has been sustaining this type of success, as last season’s 190 total bases in just 99 games had him with 1 of the league’s best .521 slugging percentage. The Brewers shortstop can also be trusted on the road, as he hit this prop in the last 2 games away from home. Whether he adds to his 20 home runs tonight or otherwise, Adames can get at least 2 total bases. 

Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+2778 odds!)

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.