The postseason isn’t supposed to be easy, but the Phillies have made it look like a piece of cake. From their dominant starting pitching to their lights-out bullpen and their offense that can’t stop hitting home runs, the Phillies are just 2 wins away from their second straight World Series appearance.
With Game 3 on the horizon, here is my Same Game Parlay that pays out at over 6/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Phillies ML (-132)
Bryce Harper 3+ bases (+175)
Nick Castellanos 2+ bases (+100)
Same Game Parlay odds: +622
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-132) over Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks can finally let out a sigh of relief – they don’t have to play in Philadelphia for a few games. The Snakes are down 0-2 after an embarrassing start to the NLCS, which featured the Phillies launching 6 home runs in just 2 games. Game 3 is crucial for the Snakes because a loss makes the next game an elimination game, so Thursday’s game is a must-win scenario. So, who will the Diamondbacks throw in this pivotal game? Brandon Pfaadt, a rookie right-hander who had a 5.72 ERA in 96 innings. If you can’t tell, I think this is a terrible move for the Snakes. This is for several reasons, but most importantly, Pfaadt’s arsenal. The rookie relied on his fastball for 45.4% of pitches in the regular season, and opponents hit .325 with a .650 SLG against that pitch. Although it was his primary pitch, it was also his biggest weakness. Pfaadt’s fastball had a -10 Run Value in the regular season, and it’s not surprising because it’s not an above-average pitch. It has less vertical and horizontal movement than the average MLB fastball and sits at just 93.7 MPH. The reason I mention his fastball so much is because 4 of Philadelphia’s 6 home runs against the Diamondbacks have been on the fastball. In summary, Pfaadt throws a flat fastball a lot, and the Phillies hunt and smash fastballs.
Ranger Saurez has been fantastic for the Phillies in the postseason. In Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves he threw 3.1 scoreless innings and surrendered just 1 hit while striking out 4. Then in Game 4, he threw 5 innings and allowed only 1 run, which came on an Austin Riley solo shot. So in 2 postseason starts, Suarez has allowed 1 run, 4 hits and 1 walk in 8.2 innings. He limited hitters to a .133 batting average, a .189 xBA and a 33% hard-hit rate in those outings. Both of those starts came against the Braves, who had one of the best lefty-hitting offenses in baseball in the regular season. However, the same can’t be said for the Diamondbacks. In the second half of the season, the Snakes ranked 20th in batting average, 18th in on-base percentage, 27th in slugging percentage, 24th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. I think the home-field advantage is factored a little too much into this line, and that gives value to the Phillies.
Check out our Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions
Bryce Harper 3+ bases (+175)
Bryce Harper has recorded a hit in every postseason game but one. In 8 postseason games Harper is 10-for-26 (.385) with 4 home runs. He has loved playing in front of his home fans as he seemingly feeds off the energy from Citizens Bank Park, but the setting has shifted to Arizona for Game 3. Here’s the thing: it doesn’t matter where Harper takes an at-bat right now because he’s red hot. Plus, he’s facing a pitcher who throws his two favorite pitches. As mentioned earlier, Pfaadt relies on his fastball to a fault. The rookie also uses a changeup for his primary put-away pitch against left-handed hitters, and those are two pitches Harper crushes.
In the regular season, Harper hit .320 with a .523 SLG against fastballs and .325 with a .518 SLG against offspeed pitches. And if Pfaadt tries to get sneaky and throw Harper a slider – he’ll be ready. Three of Harper’s 4 home runs in the postseason have been against sliders and sweepers. The other home run? A flat fastball that Harper demolished into the stands. He’s swinging too hot of a bat to fade right now.
Nick Castellanos 2+ bases (+100)
Usually I would include a leg in a Same Game Parlay that doesn’t technically correlate with the others to increase the payout. However, based on how this series has gone I’m not taking any chances on a Diamondbacks player. I’m sticking with the man who can’t stop hitting home runs in the postseason, Nick Castellanos. Castellanos is 10-for-29 (.345) with 5 home runs in the postseason, but that’s not the only reason I’m backing him. As you’ve read several times already, Pfaadt throws a flat fastball a lot.
So, which Philadelphia hitter is the best against four-seam fastballs? That would be Castellanos, who had a 12 Run Value, a .345 average and a .604 SLG against fastballs in the regular season. In fact, he ranked 20th in all of baseball among hitters against four-seam fastballs. The gaps are wide at Chase Field, so whether it’s by a multi-hit game or an extra-base hit, I’m expecting at least 2 bases from Castellanos.
