Ricky Dimon
The ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week should be a fun one between National League East rivals. It is game 4 of a series between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, with visiting Philadelphia having won 2 of the first 3 contests. The Braves are spending Spencer Strider to the mound in hopes of coming away with a split.
Below is my SGP for the Sunday night game, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Braves -1.5 (-132)
Alec Bohm to record an RBI (+240)
Parlay odds: +719
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as Alec Bohm driving in a run for Philadelphia obviously goes against a Braves -1.5 bet. Nonetheless, Atlanta should be able to take care of business even if Bohm delivers. Let’s break down each of the 2 legs.
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Braves -1.5 (-132)
Spencer Strider, the current strikeout leader and runner up for National League Rookie of the Year last season, will take the ball for his 11th start of 2023. The right-hander has picked up exactly where he left off last season, pitching to a 2.97 ERA and a 2.61 xERA. He has somehow increased his strikeout rate from last season to a ridiculous 41.5%, and is one of the youngest, brightest pitchers in the game.
Philadelphia’s rotation turns to an unfamiliar name when right-hander Dylan Covey takes the ball for just his second appearance in a Phillies’ uniform. Covey was claimed on waivers from the Dodgers on May 20 and pitched quite well in his Philly debut. Unfortunately Covey’s time in the majors hasn’t gone according to plan, as he owns a career 6.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP across 273.1 innings. After playing 2 seasons of pro ball in China, he is looking to make a comeback — but most certainly has his hands full tonight. The Braves boast one of the best lineups in baseball, led by Ronald Acuna Jr. — who has a slash line of .322/.407/.556 to go along with 22 stolen bases. It’s difficult for me to see a scenario where Covey gets through this lineup multiple times unscathed given his track record.
Alec Bohm to record an RBI (+240)
Strider hasn’t been around for too long, so the Philadelphia hitters do not have a ton of experience against him. However, early returns are encouraging for Alec Bohm. The 26-year-old first baseman is 3-for-10 lifetime in the head-to-head matchup with a home run. Bohm is in stellar form at the moment, too, with a 5-game hitting streak heading into Sunday. This stretch includes 2 multi-hit performances, giving him 5 such efforts in May.
Bohm has also driven in 5 runs over the past 5 contests, so I like his chances of bringing another teammate across the plate tonight.
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