We have a smaller slate of MLB action for Thursday April 16, as there are only 10 MLB games scheduled to be played. Despite having fewer games to choose from there is still plenty of value on the board. Let’s dive in and discuss my 3 best bets for Thursday’s slate of games.
MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants under 8.5 (-118)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Games played in Great American Ballpark can be tricky when targeting an under given the hitter-friendly conditions, but I still find Thursday’s total to be a bit too high. Neither offense has found their best form offensively yet this season, and both starting pitching options have flashed serious upside.
Chase Burns is the scheduled starter for Cincinnati on Thursday. Burns is set to make his 4th start of the season. His first 2 starts were terrific with 11 innings of 1-run ball and 16 strikeouts. He struggled in his last outing, striking out just 2 Angels while walking 4 and allowing 5 earned runs in his 5.1 innings. The talent is evident when watching Burns, though, and I look for him to bounce back with a strong effort this time around against a Giants offense that ranks 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Landen Roupp is set to make his 4th start of the season as well in this game. Roupp had his rough start in his 2nd outing against the Mets, allowing 5 earned runs in that start. His other 2 outings have combined for 12 innings of 1-run ball, however, and overall, his form looks pretty good. He has been drawing a ton of weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground with 0 home runs allowed so far. Both bullpens have numerous available arms, and I favor the under in this game with all things considered.
MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML Over Baltimore Orioles (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
We backed Parker Messick and the Guardians in his last start against the Atlanta Braves, and he dazzled with 6.2 scoreless frames and a Guardians win. It wasn’t the easiest matchup against an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in wOBA against southpaw pitching, but neither was his matchup against the Dodgers who rank 1st in that metric. He tossed 6 scoreless frames against that lethal Los Angeles unit. Messick also allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings against the Cubs who are 7th so far. The southpaw hurler is set for another tough matchup against the Orioles who are 3rd in wOBA against lefties, but Messick has proven able to compete with the top lineups.
Messick has a 2.92 FIP and 2.93 xERA which are generally in line with his marks from last season in his 39.2 innings. He has a nice mix of strikeout stuff with his 6 offerings, and his utilization of those pitches helps keep opponents off balance. Messick is someone I am very high on and will continue to look to bet on as long as the market fails to adjust.
Shane Baz is set to start this game for the Orioles, marking his 4th appearance with the team following the offseason trade from Tampa Bay. Baz hasn’t been overly sharp to start his tenure with Baltimore. His first start resulted in 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Twins. He pitched better against Pittsburgh with only 1 earned run allowed, but his command was shaky with 3 walks issued. Baz struggled in his most recent outing, allowing 11 base runners in 5 innings against the Mets, surviving with allowing only 3 earned runs. Cleveland has shown plate discipline and solid contact metrics so far and I expect them to string together a couple solid innings against Baz.
MLB Best Bet: Steven Matz (TBR) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-152)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.
Our final best bet will be in the strikeout prop market. I will preface this writeup by stating that strikeout rates seem to be down early on this season for several starters, and props tend to be going under. That being said, I find this to be a nice spot for Steven Matz to find his 5th strikeout. Matz has been sharp to begin his season with Tampa Bay, tossing 16 innings with 17 strikeouts and a 3.94 ERA so far. His underlying metrics are even stronger with his 3.35 xERA and 2.97 FIP.
Matz has never been an overpowering strikeout artist, but he is more than capable of getting to a small number in an advantageous matchup. Through the first few weeks of the regular season the White Sox have been sporting some unimpressive whiff rates. They currently sit 28th in baseball in zone contact rate and their 12.4% swinging strike rate is the 5th highest mark in the sport. Chicago has a youthful lineup with plenty of whiff, and so far against left-handed pitching the White Sox have a 28.2% strikeout rate, the 4th worst mark. Look for Matz to pitch well in this start and find 5 or more strikeouts against Chicago.
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