Well, another week of baseball is nearly in the books. But before we turn the page on the week, we have an action-packed slate today. The day begins in Queens as the Angels and Mets finish their series and concludes with ESPN showing Sunday Night Baseball in San Francisco between the Braves and Giants. After cashing yesterday’s +879 mega parlay we’re hungry for more success! Here is my 3-team MLB mega parlay at over 10/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook, and make sure to also check out all of today’s MLB predictions.
Astros-Tigers alternate total under 8 (+115)
Rangers -1.5 (+150)
Reds ML (+105)
Parlay odds: +1001
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Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers alternate total under 8 (+115)
Alex Faedo had a rough start to his MLB career, but he has turned it around nicely in the last month. The right-hander made his first start of the season in May and struggled in his limited opportunities as he posted a 6.98 ERA in 6 starts in the first half of the season. Faedo was in danger of losing his spot in the rotation if he couldn’t turn things around. However, that hasn’t been a problem. The 27-year-old has posted a 2.08 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 4 starts since the All-Star break with opponents including the Padres, Cubs and Twins twice. During those 4 starts, Faedo has limited hitters to a .123 batting average, a .196 xBA and just a 30% hard-hit rate. Those are elite numbers for a guy who was supposed to be a backend starter.
Unlike Faeda, Justin Verlander does not need an introduction. After being traded to the Astros before the deadline, Verlander has been the consistent ace that Houston desperately needed. He is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 4 starts since rejoining the Astros and has limited hitters to a .214 batting average, a .217 xBA and a 30% hard-hit rate. His most recent start was his best in the last few weeks as he threw 6-scoreless innings and gave up just 5 hits while striking out a season-high 9 batters. It’s clear that being back with Houston has elevated his game, and since he is countered by a surging Faedo, I’m taking an alternate under in Detroit.
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (+150) over Minnesota Twins
They say everything is bigger in Texas, and I guess that’s true for losing streaks too. Heading into Saturday night’s game, the Rangers had lost 8 games in a row and also gave up sole possession of the AL West for the first time since mid-April. Texas managed to put an end to that losing streak with a 6-2 win last night and fortunately for them, they have the right guy on the mound today to add another win. Trade-deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery has been fantastic in his limited time with the Rangers, as he’s posted a 1.73 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 4 outings. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks, the southpaw threw 8 scoreless innings and allowed only 4 hits while striking out 6. He’s been exactly what the Rangers needed, and I would go as far as to say that he was the best trade deadline pickup this season.
I was Bailey Ober’s #1 fan in the first half of the season. The College of Charleston product had a 2.61 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 14 starts before the All-Star break. Considering he was the 5th starter on the depth chart, he provided the Twins with excellent depth in their rotation. However, the second half of the season has not been great. Ober has a 5.25 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a .313 batting average allowed in 7 starts. He has struggled to get ahead of hitters, and his primary secondary pitch, his changeup, hasn’t been getting as many swings and misses as it did in the first half of the season. If he continues to leave his fastball and changeup over the middle of the plate, the Rangers’ lineup will make him pay.
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Cincinnati Reds ML (+105) over Arizona Diamondbacks
Graham Ashcraft has had a bizarre 2023 season. He started the year on fire with a 2.10 ERA in April but was quickly brought back to reality with a 9.21 ERA in May. The bad times continued in June as he posted a 10.38 ERA in 4 starts and it started to seem like his great start to the season was an outlier. That’s when his season took another turn as Ashcraft recorded a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts in July and now has a 3.10 ERA in 4 starts in August. In summary, it has been a rollercoaster. However, he’s currently on the exciting part of the ride, so this is the time to tail him. Along with being much more effective in the last few weeks, he’s also been able to give the Reds the depth they desperately needed. Ashcraft has completed at least 7 innings in 4 straight starts and 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 outings.
Let’s get it out of the way first – Slade Cecconi is a fantastic name. Arizona’s #9 prospect has made it to the show just 3 years after being drafted. In 15.1 innings for the Diamondbacks, Cecconi has accumulated a 2.94 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. However, he does have a 5.62 xERA and a 12.8% barrel rate which indicates his sub-3 ERA is slightly misleading. I need to see more from the right-hander before I back him, especially because he wasn’t all that great in the Minors this season. Cecconi had a 6.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 20 starts in Triple-A this season before being called up. I’m very surprised to see Cincinnati at plus-odds, so I’m taking it before they shift to the favorite.
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