MLB Thursday NRFI/YRFI best bets 7/7: Logan Webb shines in the first frame

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) pitches the ball against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Oracle Park.
Photo of Keith

Keith

MLB · 1 month ago

Show Bio

A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, but one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.

Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game today.

There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like today, so let’s get right into it.

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres NRFI (-155)

We have a great pitching matchup in San Diego on Thursday night as Logan Webb and Joe Musgrove face off. Both starters have had incredible seasons, as displayed by their minuscule ERAs, but they’ve been specifically good in the first inning. The first frame has been scoreless in 6 of Webb’s last 7 starts and he has posted a 3.38 ERA in the first inning. Opponents are 13-for-60 (.216) with a 28.3% strikeout rate against Webb in the first inning which has led to a lot of scoreless starts to a game. The top three of the San Diego lineup is made up of Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth who have all faced Webb a few times in their careers. Against Webb, Profar is 4-for-8 (.500), Machado is 3-for-12 (.250) with 4 strikeouts, and Cronenworth is 4-for-12 (.333) with a strikeout. 

Some pitchers take an inning or two to settle in, but not Musgrove. He has a 1.93 ERA in the first inning and opponents are 11-for-52 (.211) with a 32.7% strikeout rate in that span. The last time he faced the Giants, he threw 7 scoreless innings and surrendered just 4 hits. The top of the San Francisco order offered no resistance against Musgrove, and I anticipate the same will happen on Thursday. Musgrove will likely face Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores, and Darin Ruf at the top of the Giants order. In their careers against Musgrove, Slater is 0-for-3 (.000) with a strikeout, Flores is 2-for-18 (.111) with 5 strikeouts, and Ruf is 1-for-5 (.200) with a strikeout. 

This game should see a scoreless frame with two excellent starting pitchers, so back the NRFI in San Diego.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies YRFI (-145)

Joan Adon has been one of the worst pitchers in the National League this season. He has a 6.97 ERA with a 5.90 xERA through 60.2 innings for the Nationals, but he’s at his worst in the first inning. Adon’s ERA spikes to 9.00 with a 1.92 WHIP and opponents are 16-for-55 (.291) in the first frame. The right-hander will likely face Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and Nick Castellanos at the top of the Phillies order. Against Adon in their careers, Schwarber is 1-for-4 (.250), Hoskins is 0-for-3 (.000), and Castellanos is 2-for-3 (.667). 

If the Phillies cannot score off of Adon, the Nationals offense is a solid back-up option. Washington averages 0.74 first inning runs on the road which ranks 1st in baseball. The Nationals will be facing Bailey Falter who has posted a 4.88 ERA with a 5.47 xERA in 24 innings. The top of the Nationals order will be Cesar Hernandez, Juan Soto, and Josh Bell which is a dangerous top three in the lineup. In their careers, Hernandez has not faced Falter, Soto is 1-for-5 (.200), and Bell is 3-for-4 (.750) with 2 home runs. 

Neither pitcher has had solid success this season and both offenses start early, so back the YRFI in Philadelphia.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.