The World Series is finally here, and what better way to celebrate Game 1 than with a Same Game Parlay?!?! For Friday’s game I have selected 3 bets to parlay together. In this Same Game Parlay we have a NRFI, a strikeout prop and a money line pick. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 pm ET on FOX, so let’s get right into the parlay.
No run first inning (-150)
Aaron Nola 6+ strikeouts (-120)
Houston Astros ML (-170)
Parlay odds: +400
Here’s our Phillies and Astros World Series Game 1 preview
No run first inning (-150)
Although it’s a steep price for a NRFI, it’s a perfect addition to this Same Game Parlay. In the regular season, Justin Verlander was outstanding in the first inning and finished with a 1.61 ERA and.192 BAA in 28 starts. With a 1.41 ERA and a .204 BAA, Aaron Nola’s first-inning statistics are remarkably comparable. Nola has thrown a scoreless first inning in 11 consecutive starts, so to find the last time he allowed a first inning run, you would have to go back to August 19 against the Mets. Together, these 2 aces had a combined 54-6 NRFI record in the regular season.
I anticipate seeing Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto and Bryce Harper as the top 4 hitters in the Phillies lineup because the top of the order for Philadelphia has remained constant throughout the postseason. Schwarber and Hoskins have never faced Verlander in their careers, while Realmuto is 0-for-2 with a strikeout and Harper is 2-for-5 with 2 strikeouts. I would prefer if Verlander did not face Harper since he earned the NLCS MVP honors and has been one of the hottest hitters this postseason, so I’m hoping Verlander can sit down the Phillies in order in the top of the first.
Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman will most likely bat for the Astros in the bottom of the first, and they are a combined 3-for-12 with 6 strikeouts against Nola. Given that Houston has yet to score in the first inning of this postseason, we should see an NRFI in Game 1 of the World Series as long as soon-to-be AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander can pitch a scoreless top of the first.
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Aaron Nola 6+ strikeouts (-120)
Aaron Nola has recorded 6 strikeouts in all 3 postseason starts. That’s not too surprising since he finished the regular season with a 29.1% strikeout rate, which placed him in the 85th percentile. Dating back to the end of the regular season, Nola has 6 or more strikeouts in 7 consecutive starts. In a bigger sample size, he recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 26 of his 32 starts, so it’s fairly common to see the ace rack up the strikeouts. In full transparency, the Astros’ lineup does not strike out a ton. However, they struck out 9 times against Nola earlier in October.
They also struck out 7 times against Gerrit Cole in Game 3 of the ALCS and 6 times against Luis Severino in Game 2 of the ALCS, so they are vulnerable to strike out against high strikeout rate pitchers. Back Nola to throw 6 or more strikeouts for an 8th consecutive start.
Houston Astros ML over Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
Up until the NLDS, Nola was having a strong playoff performance. He pitched 12.2 innings against the Cardinals and Braves without allowing a run while surrendering just 9 hits in his first 2 outings. But a disappointing performance in San Diego tarnished his perfect postseason run. The right-hander allowed 6 runs and 7 hits, including 2 home runs, in 4.2 innings against the Padres. It was the first time Nola looked hittable in a few weeks, so it’s good to know that he is human.
Verlander’s postseason got off to a bad start, as the Mariners beat him in Game 1 of the ALDS. I believe some of that can be attributed to his significant rest period prior to that start, but he bounced back nicely in his second postseason start against the Yankees as Verlander finished with 3 hits allowed and 11 strikeouts in 6.0 innings. The Houston ace faced this Philadelphia lineup once in the regular season in the beginning of October and he was dominant. He had a no-hitter going through 5.0 innings but was taken out of the game since the Astros were winning 8-0. This should be a much closer game than his previous outing against the Phillies, but the result should not change. Back the Astros to win Game 1.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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