Matt Selz
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Welcome to Nashville where country music, good food, and fast cars all meet. Nashville Superspeedway is hosting its third NASCAR Cup Series race this Sunday with the Ally 400. One of the lone Sunday night races on the schedule, the speed, grip, and groves on the track should all be up, leading to a great race under the lights. Just how will Nashville race? What can we take from the 2021 and 2022 Ally 400s for the 2023 Ally 400?
What cars do we expect to be good at Nashville this weekend? Let’s see the betting strategies, winner predictions, and prop bets for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway.
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Nashville Superspeedway track layout
On the list of unique tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, Nashville is near the top of the list. It’s 1.33-mile tri-oval layout with a racing surface of concrete. That makes it unique in a few ways as there’s not really a track this length, though Darlington is close, and there’s only a few tracks with concrete like Bristol, Dover, and Martinsville. However, when we add in the relatively flat banking in the corners it’s like no other track on the circuit. That means this week we’re looking at a few different tracks for strategies and comps. I’m likening Nashville to a little bit of Kansas, Las Vegas, Gateway, New Hampshire, and Dover.
Betting Strategies for Ally 400
The last two races for the Cup series at Nashville have been track position affairs. Passing has been tough here, though manageable with good long run speed and pit strategy. It’s similar to what we see at Las Vegas, Gateway, and New Hampshire. That doesn’t mean that the pole-sitter is guaranteed a win here but the last two winners have come from the top-five starting spots. The other thing to keep in mind is that practice was at 6:30 pm ET on Friday night and qualifying will be 1:00 pm ET on Saturday. That means completely different track conditions and weather conditions which matters a lot at a track like this. Nashville is a fairly temperature dependent track which means the cars that were better at practice should be the ones that come to the front during the race as the temps cool down.
Winner predictions for Ally 400
Martin Truex Jr. +550 (DraftKings)
Following practice on Friday he’s become a co-favorite in most books with Kyle Larson. Prior to that he was the second or third driver on the odds list which is also a bit surprising. He’s coming off a win, granted at a road course, but he’s been consistently fast the last several races. Let’s also not forget that he should’ve won here last year, or had a shot to, had he not messed up the late-race pit strategy that put him back in the 20s with a handful of laps left. Running P2 in practice and showing good long-run speed should have him competing for the win again on Sunday evening.
Ross Chastain +750 (DraftKings)
Chastain has yet to win this year and has been a bit of a no-show the last few races since getting talked to about his driving style. I think the off-weekend has him more focused and driven to put that behind him and show the speed once more. That’s certainly been the case in practice as he was one of the best cars on track. If he can get back to his aggressive driving style and bring the 1-car home, he should have the speed to be a factor late in the race and punch his ticket to the playoffs.
Tyler Reddick +1000 (BetRivers)
Reddick was the fastest car in practice on Friday night. It didn’t really matter where the car was on the track, whether the low- or high-line, he was fast. That’s a good sign for him. He needs to get his mojo back after a rough stretch to end the first part of the year, prior to the off-weekend. Reddick should have the speed to do just that on Sunday and let’s not forget that the 45-car, piloted by Kurt Busch, finished P2 in last year’s race and was running top-five much of the night (hint at a prop below).
Ryan Blaney +1600 (DraftKings)
It wasn’t that long ago that we were writing off the blue ovals at intermediate tracks. And why not right? But Blaney parked his blue oval in victory lane at Charlotte and is now showing top-seven speed at Nashville. The win at Charlotte wasn’t a fluke and should give him the confidence to nab a second win on the year in a similar package to tracks he’s been fast at all year.
Chris Buescher +5000 (Caesars)
Hint, he’s not the only long shot this week. Buescher is coming off back-to-back top-10s this year and shows top-10 speed again this weekend. He’s not gotten a win in a while, that’s true, but the first sign a win is coming is a driver has consistent speed for a while, and that’s what Buescher’s showing. If we don’t want to get completely in the outright win bucket yet, there is a prop for him below as well.
Erik Jones +20000 (DraftKings)
What? Why in the heck is Jones in this list? Well, this is the most speed he’s shown all year, on a non-plate track, and that has to count for something right? We’ve seen Jones show up and win races we’ve never looked at him for, just think back to Darlington last year, and this is one of those races. The Legacy Motor Club team has been “horrid” to quote Dale Jr. this year and that’s true but that doesn’t mean they can’t show up for one weekend with a fast car and shock people. He’ll need a good qualifying and the practice speed to translate and a few breaks to pull this off, but everyone in this range needs that and he’s already got the speed taken care of.
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Best Prop Bets for Ally 400
Martin Truex Jr. Top-5 Finish +110 (Caesars)
The fact that we can still find this at plus money after practice where he ran second-fastest and had good long run speed is amazing. Toyotas have been great here the last two years and look to be again. Truex is quietly putting together another solid year and is coming off his first win prior to the break.
Tyler Reddick Top-5 Finish +210 (Caesars)
It’s been an up and down year for Reddick making the transition to Toyota from Chevy but there’s hope once again this weekend. He was the fastest in practice and had good lap averages as well. That’s what we went to see heading into Sunday. He’s shown top-five speed at similar tracks this year despite having two rough finishes before the break. If he keeps it clean, we should see Reddick up near the front all evening.
Chris Buescher Top-10 Finish +220 (Caesars)
He’s coming off back-to-back top-10s prior to the off-weekend. He’s back at it with top-10 speed in practice again. The Fords have shown renewed speed at the intermediate tracks of late as well. The RFK duo has been sneaky fast most of the year and Buescher has been the more consistent of the duo so we’ll back him this weekend.
Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish +135 (Caesars)
The rookies has been having a solid year and logging laps well. We saw him run in the top-10 at practice. He had a run of top-10s at intermediates earlier in the year and I think the off-weekend get back into the swing of things. Keep in mind the Cup Series is way more of a grind than the Xfinity schedule is especially for a young rookie like Gibbs. Toyotas have been good here as well.
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