Matt Selz
Show Bio
As the name of the race this weekend — Grant Park 220 — suggests, we’re racing in sweet home Chicago. It’s the first-ever street race for NASCAR and what better to setting than downtown Chicago and Lake Michigan? There’s a lot of talk surrounding just what the track will race like given the layout, distance, corners, and the tightness of the streets. Teams have gotten a lot of time in the sims and have their opinions about how the track will race but we’ll all just have to wait and see if those predictions are right come Sunday. In the meantime, how are we approaching this race from a betting perspective? What are the strategies we can use? Who are the drivers we’re looking at for winning and what props are we looking at?
You can bet on our NASCAR picks with FanDuel, America’s #1 sportsbook, which has the best odds available and a great sign-up offer where you get a No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000! Click here to take advantage of this offer and gain access to tons of odds boosts on site.
NASCAR Chicago Street Course Layout
Does anyone know what to expect from this layout? I mean honestly, it’s a never-been-done-before race on a never-been-used-before layout. Overall, the Chicago Street Circuit is a 2.2-mile lap with 12 corners. Seven of those corners are 90-degrees, or thereabouts, which could make for some tight lines. One other thing to pay attention to is that the straights aren’t all that long, in fact, the start-finish straight isn’t actually long enough to work as the restart zone without causing havoc into Turn 1. On other road courses that NASCAR races on, we see plenty of run-off or bail out areas but there isn’t any on the Chicago Street Course. That could mean chaos unfolds quickly and often, especially if there’s weather involved, which we’ll get to shortly. Unlike in other motorsports that race on road/street layouts, NASCAR employs a full-course yellow which could make this race drag on a bit and make for some interesting finishing positions.
Chicago Weather This Weekend
Speaking of the weather, there is a chance of rain both days in Chicago this weekend. Granted, it’s only 50-percent max which means it’s lower than a coin flip in actuality but still, it’s there. NASCAR does have wet weather tires to use at road courses now which should help. However, that doesn’t mean that chaos won’t arise if in fact it does rain.
Betting Strategies For Grant Park 220
On an unknown, first-ever track/event it’s hard to have concrete betting strategies in place. That being said, we can take a bit from other road races and which drivers and/or teams have done well in this discipline. We should also factor in the challenge we’re likely to see in passing and moving up at this track. As soon as the track layout was released and the drivers hit the sims, the first comments were about how tough it was expected to be to pass and move through the field. Without the stage break cautions, we could see this come down to a pit strategy race or simply avoiding the chaos that’s likely to show up. There is a chance that race’s qualifying session is similar to the importance of Monaco for F1 in that starting toward the front will be vitally important to a driver’s shot at the win.
NASCAR Grant Park 220 Winner predictions
All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Chase Elliott (+550)
It’s been a rough patch for Elliott on the road races of late without a win in the last 10 such races. However, he is showing speed again now that he’s been in the car again for a few straight races and is building upon that each week. We’ve also seen what Elliott is capable of in must-win situations and that’s where he finds himself at this point in the year in trying to make the playoffs following the missing of six races and the suspension for another. If the 9-car is on pole, it could look a lot like Max Verstappen out front.
Martin Truex Jr. (+850 at BetRivers)
He’s coming off a win at the last road course the Cup Series went to and has been consistently fast since the opening month of the season. Truex nearly won the inaugural Charlotte Roval race a few years back and don’t think he wouldn’t love to not only notch another win this year but also get the first-ever street course win in NASCAR as well. When Truex and company get hot, the wins come in bunches so why not again this weekend?
AJ Allmendinger (+1000 at Caesars)
Allmendinger’s road racing bona fides are well established. While it’s a new track for everyone, including Allmendinger, and he’s not allowed in the Xfinity — same as all other Cup drivers — that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a leg up. He’s been very adept at adjusting to new tracks on the fly including Portland International Raceway in Xfintiy and Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course in Cup over the last two years. There’s also the fact that a solid road racer is racing for the Kaulig Xfinity team in Justin Marks, co-owner of Trackhouse Racing in Cup, which should give Allmendinger and company some good notes about how to approach the Cup setup.
Kyle Busch (+1000 at Caesars)
Anyone realize that Busch has finished P2 in both road races this year with his new team? Not only that but he’s had quite the consistent run for much of the year with a few wins already to his credit and nearly a fourth at Sonoma. If he can get on the front row again, like he has multiple times recently, there’s little doubt that he’ll be in a position to win as the checkered flag waves.
Christopher Buescher (+2000 at Caesars)
How many close calls at road races will it take before Buescher lands in Victory Lane? He’s been in the top-five several times in recent races and is always a guy who shows he isn’t there by happenstance. Put him on a track where it should be tough to pass with a team that knows how to game strategy and have his skills behind the wheel shine and we’ve got a potential winning combination.
Daniel Suarez (+2500 at Caesars)
Suarez won at Sonoma last year and has shown good speed at road courses this year again. As if the consistency from him wasn’t enough, he and his teammate Ross Chastain, have a leg up on others that should come in handy. While Cup drivers aren’t allowed in the Xfinity race on Saturday for extra track time, that isn’t stopping Cup owners from getting track time. Justin Marks, the co-owner of Trackhouse Racing, Suarez’s team, is racing for Kaulig Racing and should have plenty of notes to give the Cup team.
Joey Logano (+3500)
Here’s the long shot of the week for you. I wanted to go after Ty Gibbs at 50-1 earlier in the week but the line moved too quickly so Logano is now the long shot. It’s not like it’s without merit though. He ran P3 at Sonoma and has been a pretty solid, yet overlooked, road racer in his time in the Cup series. There’s also a narrative with him and we all know how much I like narratives. What’s the narrative? It’s a new track. Since the Gen 7 car showed up, and the schedule got switched up — both to start 2022 — Logano has been the king of the new tracks. First Coliseum race? Logano wins. First new Atlanta? Logano wins. First Gateway race? Logano wins. Get the picture?
If you want to use a sportsbook that has an easy-to-use app and no hassle, then Bet365 could be the one for you. Click this link to sign up now and secure $200 in bonus bets.
NASCAR Grant Park 220 Prop Best Bets
Chris Buescher Top-5 Finish (+275 at Caesars)
Buescher ran P4 at Sonoma plus P8 at COTA, after starting P32. It’s not like those are flukes either as he’s been perhaps the most consistent road racer in the Cup Series for the last two years and is always a guy to watch in this discipline. The RFK duo has been tough to pass on road layouts, especially Buescher, and we’re counting on that with this prop.
Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish (+180 at BetRivers)
I really wanted to bet him to win at 50-1, at least a part of a unit, but now that the line is between 28- and 35-1, he’s less enticing. The thing is though that he’s still intriguing at plus money for a top-10 finish. He ran well at both COTA and Sonoma this year before a late-race issue at Sonoma moved him back. That, along with his sim time this week and his apparent dominance in iRacing over other Cup drivers has me feeling pretty solid about the youngster showing up well in Chi Town
Joey Logano Top-10 Finish (+140 at BetRivers)
The hedge bet is back. Sure, we have one above with Buescher as well but why not go for a second one in a week. As stated above, Logano has a knack for showing out (as the kids say) at new tracks and this is certainly that. Couple that with a P3 finish at Sonoma and a good car at COTA, before he was wrecked out, and the hedge looks even better.
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+120 at Caesars)
The Gen 7 car has been good for Suarez at road courses with half of the road races resulting in 50-percent top-10 laps run and another with 40-percent of the race spent in the top-10. That’s good enough for a prop like this with this return. There’s also the fact that Suarez has finished P10 or better in 3-of-8 road races in the Gen 7 and should’ve had a fourth before a restart mid-race stuck him further back.
Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish (+350 at BetRivers)
This one is about him taking advantage of chaos at road courses. He’s been quite good at that in the last few wreckfests of road races — we’re expecting that on Sunday. Dillon has also been able to move up with strategy at tracks where it’s tough to pass and that is likely to be the case on Sunday in Chicago. This is the riskiest prop on the list so bet cautiously.
BetMGM is the king of online sportsbooks, and right now they have a great new customer promotion where you can claim a $1,000 deposit bonus by signing up right now! Click this link to join BetMGM.
