Ricky Dimon
Joey Chestnut is back.
That’s right, folks. Following a 1-year hiatus from the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, the American hero will return to his stomping grounds of Coney Island, New York on Independence Day. With Chesnut’s comeback, glory will be restored to what is perhaps the greatest competition in the entire world of sports. If it’s not at the absolute top, then the only events it trails are the Super Bowl and the World Cup final. But, let’s be honest, it’s probably #1.
You can bet on pretty much anything these days, and the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is no exception. Fortunately for American competitive eating fans, the legendary Mustard Yellow International Belt is all but guaranteed to stay at home thanks to Chestnut. Unfortunately for bettors, there aren’t any real options on the outright market. To put it simply, Chestnut is going to win. There is little to no doubt about that. If he doesn’t, it would be the biggest upset in sports history – bigger than USA over Russia at the 1980 Winter Olympics, bigger than Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson and bigger than Hickory over South Bend Central in Hoosiers.
Of course, there isn’t much value on the Kentucky native as an overwhelming -1800 favorite – nor is there any value on the rest of the field as huge underdogs. Aside from the aberration that was 2015 (when Matt Stonie stunned Chestnut 62 to 60), nobody has been able to challenge the best competitive eater on the planet since Takeru Kobayashi stopped competing in the contest in 2011.
As such, we must look elsewhere for value bets. Let’s take a look.
Joey Chestnut Under 71.5 hot dogs consumed (-130)
It’s never fun to fade Chestnut, but he can still win even without consuming more than 71.5 hot dogs. In fact, he will win. The only questions are: by how much and after eating how many?
In 2022 the listed total was 74.5. I hammered the under and it cashed comfortably, as Chestnut scarfed down “only” 63 dogs (partly due to a protestor running on stage in the middle of the competition, after which Chestnut put him in a chokehold). In 2023 the number was 72.5 and I was all over the under again. It cashed again, as Jaws finished with 62 hot dogs eaten – despite no interruptions.
We can still root for Chestnut while also predicting him to finish under the number. That’s exactly what I’m doing here. The 41-year-old exceeded this quota in 2018, 2020 and 2021, but those are the only 3 times he has done it. That means Chestnut has surpassed 71.5 in just 1 trip to the hallowed grounds of Surf and Stillwell Avenues, where the festivities returned in 2022 following a 2-year departure. It was held indoors in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and in 2021 it took place amidst a limited capacity at Maimonides Park, a minor-league baseball stadium. Only in 2018, when he devoured 74, has Chestnut exceeded 72.5 at the Coney Island venue.
To be sure, Chestnut is a lock to win a 17th Mustard Yellow International Belt – cementing his status as not only a legendary athlete but also quite simply a legendary man.
“When the barren hills and the cracked earth and the once-proud oceans drain to sand, there will still be a monument to our existence,” contest host George Shea declared to the masses who attended the 2022 weigh-in. “This man represents all that is eternal in the human spirit.”
Truer words have never been spoken…but there is still too much value on the under.
Winner without Joey Chestnut: Geoffrey Esper (+425)
At long odds, Esper has good value to finish runner-up behind Chestnut. Esper is the #3 eater in the world right now, trailing Chestnut and Patrick Bertoletti (-160 odds). The 51-year-old got second place 3 times in a row prior to Chestnut’s absence last summer. Esper failed to capitalize on the open door in 2024, when he got second behind Bertoletti, but now the pressure is off again. He knows he is playing for second place as opposed to first, and there is no reason why his streak of seconds can’t continue.
