It’s an Olympic year, and that means we get even more high-level basketball to fill in the void between NBA seasons. The men’s team from the United States are heavy favorites to take home the gold medal, but that doesn’t mean the path to securing the top prize will be an easy one. After rolling through group play, the United States continues its quest for a gold medal with a matchup against Brazil in the quarterfinal round. With a 26.5-point spread listed at most outlets, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Brazilian national team much of a shot to hang with the United States in this one. But that’s why they play the games, right?
Let’s take a look at the USA vs Brazil odds and my prediction for this fascinating quarterfinal matchup at the 2024 Olympic Games.
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Brazil +26.5, USA -26.5
Total Points Over/Under: 184.5 points
Money Line Odds: Brazil +3000, USA -10000
You can also see our expert’s Olympics men’s basketball quarterfinal predictions for EVERY matchup
As we’ve already seen throughout group stage play, this tournament is all about matchups. As it just so happens, this is a terrific matchup for the United States on offense, particularly from beyond the arc. This Brazil team should have earned all of our respect with its showing this tournament, as the Brazilians knocked off Japan and kept things respectable against the likes of France and Germany en route to an appearance in the quarterfinals. However, while I do see a path for Brazil to keep things close early, the United States just presents a massive matchup nightmare for this Brazil defense on the perimeter.
In steps Steph Curry, who has not exactly been having a tournament to remember to this point. However, while he hasn’t shot the three-ball up to his usual standard, it’s imperative to note that Curry is still getting plenty of volume and attempts from beyond the arc in these Olympic games. It helps that this Brazil defense has been continuously torched from 3-point range in this tournament, as nearly 52% of its opponents shots have come from beyond the arc. Curry did clear this number once already in these games — a similar situation against an overmatched Serbian side on the perimeter — and I don’t foresee Brazil having much success with chasing the greatest shooter ever around the perimeter while trying to navigate screens for 30+ minutes. Team USA should raise their level in a single-elimination setting, and that calls for a much stronger effort from Curry in this contest.
