National Bank Open tennis preview, predictions and best bets: Daniil Medvedev to make another statement

Daniil Medvedev
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Ricky Dimon

Tennis · 1 month ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The summer hard-court swing, which culminates with the U.S. Open, is heating up in a big way in the form of this coming week’s National Bank Open in Canada. The men are playing in Montreal while the women are taking the court in Toronto, and for both parties it is a massive 1,000-point event (1,000 ranking points go to the champion). That makes it the highest-tier tournament outside of Grand Slams. Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are sidelined, but almost all of the top stars on the women’s side will be in action including Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff and 2021 U.S. Open champion Emma Raducanu.

Let’s take look at the odds to win the National Bank Open title on both the men’s and women’s sides and discuss the best bets to be made.

Montreal/Toronto odds to win

Here are the odds for the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers men’s and women’s singles tournaments, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Men

Daniil Medvedev +260
Carlos Alcaraz +450
Nick Kyrgios +1000
Jannik Sinner +1000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1200
Felix Auger-Aliassime +1600
Taylor Fritz +2000
Matteo Berrettini +2000
Andrey Rublev +2200
Cameron Norrie +2500
Casper Ruud +3300
Hubert Hurkacz +3300
Alex de Minaur +3300

Women

Iga Swiatek +260
Ons Jabeur +1100
Coco Gauff +1200
Simona Halep +1200
Naomi Osaka +1600
Elena Rybakina +1600
Aryna Sabalenka +1600
Paula Badosa +1800
Bianca Andreescu +2500
Maria Sakkari +2500
Belinda Bencic +2800
Serena Williams +2800
Leylah Fernandez +3500
Emma Raducanu +3500
Amanda Anisimova +3500
Anett Kontaveit +3500

3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+260)

Daniil Medvedev is in danger of losing his No. 1 ranking this summer, but he won the Los Cabos tournament on Saturday and that means he is guaranteed to remain in the top spot at least up to the U.S. Open (begins on August 29). The Russian can further cement his status as No. 1 if he successfully defends his National Bank Open title. After finishing runner-up at the Canadian Masters 1000 event in 2019, he went all the way last summer (it was cancelled in 2020). Clearly this is one of Medvedev’s best tournaments and in general this is his favorite time of year. The 26-year-old has reached the U.S. Open final twice in the last three seasons (he won it last summer) and in 2019 he advanced to seven consecutive finals starting in Washington, D.C. in early August. With momentum from Los Cabos in hand, Medvedev should remain on a roll.

2-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+1000)

Jannik Sinner is among the hottest players on the ATP Tour right now. The 20-year-old Italian owns an amazing 35-9 match record in 2022 that has lifted him up to No. 10 in the rankings. He reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and led eventual champion Djokovic two sets to love before failing to close it out. Sinner got right back in gear on the clay courts of Umag, where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final. Montreal’s 7th seed has a great draw, too, as he would not have to face Alcaraz until the semifinals and would not meet Medvedev until the title match.

1-star value play: Carlos Alcaraz (+450)

Carlos Alcaraz’s recent loss to Sinner wasn’t especially encouraging, but he has been better on hard courts than on clay this season. A return to the North American hard courts should be just what the doctor ordered for the 19-year-old Spaniard. In the spring he made a run to the Indian Wells semifinals and then captured the Miami title two weeks later. Alcaraz also reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals last summer. His draw in Montreal is good enough, as well, since the bottom half of the bracket is unspectacular aside from Sinner — whom Alcaraz wouldn’t see until the semis.

3-star value play: Coco Gauff (+1200)

At some point being on the Gauff bandwagon is going to pay off, and this very well could be the week. Especially at relatively sizable +1200 odds, it’s worth taking a shot on the 18-year-old American. Gauff is in solid enough form, having won multiple matches at a whopping 6 consecutive tournaments – including a runner-up performance at the French Open. She is coming off a quarterfinal effort last week in San Jose, where she beat Naomi Osaka in straight sets before falling to Paula Badosa. That isn’t a terrible loss and it means Gauff will be well-rested for Toronto. The world No. 11 is in the bottom half of the draw away from Iga Swiatek, which is certainly good news, so all signs point toward success.

Coco-Gauff-Cincinnati

2-star value play: Paula Badosa (+1800)

Paula Badosa will be high on confidence after beating Gauff in San Jose, but she will also be rested enough following a setback against Daria Kasatkina in the semifinals. The fourth-ranked Spaniard also reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, so she is in fine form overall. Like Gauff, Badosa finds herself in a more favorable bottom half of the Toronto bracket. Don’t be surprised if she capitalizes.

1-star value play: Amanda Anisimova (+3500)

Amanda Anisimova is in the top half of the draw, but she wouldn’t have to play against Swiatek until the semis. And when Anisimova is playing well, it often doesn’t matter who is on the other side of the net. The 20-year-old American is already a Grand Slam semifinalist (2019 French Open) and she recently advanced to the fourth round at Wimbledon (beat Gauff along the way) and the San Jose quarters (beat Karolina Pliskova). At surprisingly long +3500 odds, Anisimova is worth at least a small play.

The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis predictions and picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open.

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