Filip Tomic
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It’s the 4th and final regular-season meeting between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers. The defending champions have had the upper hand, winning 2 of the 3 meetings this year, and a win tonight clinches the regular season series for them. Tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET on TNT, and to add some extra sizzle, I’ve come up with a Nuggets vs Clippers Same Game Parlay. We were just 1 point away from cashing last night’s SGP at +1600 odds, so let’s hope luck is on our side tonight. You can also check out our NBA picks for tonight’s games, but for now, let’s dive into my Same Game Parlay!
Nuggets -3.5 (-112)
Nikola Jokic to score 25+ points (-240)
Aaron Gordon over 14.5 points (-108)
James Harden to record 8+ assists (-250)
Same Game Parlay odds: +503
Denver Nuggets -3.5 over Los Angeles Clippers (-112)
Denver heads into tonight’s game as a 3.5-point favorite, as they take on a wounded Clippers team playing without their best player, Kawhi Leonard. The Nuggets have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 8 of the last 9, and they seem to have the mental edge over this Clippers team that has played barely above .500 basketball since the all-star break.
Russell Westbrook’s comeback sparked a bit of a run as they took down Philadelphia, Orlando and Charlotte, but against a more serious team like Sacramento, the Clippers got absolutely smoked on Tuesday. There are a ton of questions surrounding this team at the moment and I just don’t see them causing the Nuggets problems here after a run of 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. LA has failed to cover at home in 5 straight, while Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Back 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic and his defending champions to cover here.
We also have a pick from this game as part of tonight’s NBA mega parlay — check it out!
Nikola Jokic to score 25+ points (-240)
Remember when they told us Ivica Zubac does a good job on Jokic every time these 2 teams play? Well, that’s not exactly been the case. The numbers show us the 2-time MVP has thoroughly dominated the Clippers, not that anyone is surprised by that. In the last 10 meetings, the Serbian big man is averaging 28.1 points per game and has cleared the 25+ point mark twice in the last 3 meetings. He’s also notched a triple-double in 2 of those 3 games, and with Murray out of the lineup, he just had a 42-point game against Victor Wembanyama a couple of days ago. In his last 6 games, he has failed to clear this line just once, and with all due respect to the Clippers and Zubac, I don’t think they have what it takes to slow him down here.
Aaron Gordon over 14.5 points (-108)
Similar to Jokic, Aaron Gordon stepped up big time in the win over San Antonio on Tuesday, delivering 23 points on 9-for-12 shooting. He also made 2 of 4 attempts from downtown, which was his 2nd game with a pair of threes in the last 3 outings. Productivity like that would be welcomed with open arms tonight as well, especially if Murray isn’t able to go due to his ankle injury. Gordon has cleared this line twice in the last 4 meetings with the Clippers and I just like his chances down low with no Kawhi Leonard to stay in front of him.
A lack of size is one of the big issues the Clippers have had this season, which was particularly visible in their last game against Sacramento, where Domantas Sabonis scored 22 points and grabbed 20 boards. Gordon should be able to continue his solid offensive form here, I have him scoring at least 15 points.
James Harden to record 8+ assists (-250)
Harden had a game to forget on Tuesday against the Kings with just 6 points scored on 1-for-7 shooting. Something is clearly off with his efficiency as prior to the Kings game he went just 1-for-3 from the field, refusing to shoot the ball. The good news is his assist numbers have stayed consistent, even with Russell Westbrook taking away possessions from him after coming back from his wrist injury. The Beard is averaging exactly 10 assists per game in his last 9 games, and during the month of March, he had 8 games of double-digit assists as well. The last time he faced Denver was back in December, finishing with 11 dimes. That was the 3rd game in the last 5 meetings with the Nuggets that Harden cracked the double-digit assist mark. With Kawhi out and Murray not guarding him, I think he won’t have many issues getting to 8 assists here.
