Filip Tomic
NBA
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Super Bowl Sunday is in the past now and the NBA returns with 22 teams in action this Monday night. My focus is on the Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat clash tipping-off at 7.30 pm ET on NBA TV, I’ve prepared another Same Game Parlay which is below.
We have picks on the side and total for all 11 Monday games on our NBA Predictions page, make sure you check those out.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Michael Porter Jr. 3+ made threes (-160)
Bam Adebayo over 9.5 rebounds (-130)
Nikola Jokic to record 12+ assists (+185)
Same Game Parlay odds: +670
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Michael Porter Jr. 3+ made threes (-160)
He’s averaging exactly 3 threes made over his last 10 games on 38.5% shooting. In 7 of those games he was able to clear this line, so despite going only 2-for-7 in his last game at Charlotte, Porter Jr. has been consistent enough to earn a spot in tonight’s parlay. Miami’s defense has been really good this season, but if there’s one flaw we can point out it’s definitely their three-point shooting which ranks only 21st in opponent three-point percentage overall. Teams are also making 37% of their threes vs Miami in their home games, which is the 6th worst mark in the league. Porter Jr. has also cleared this line in 2 of his last 3 games vs the Heat, and with Jimmy Butler’s attention mostly being on how to stop Jamal Murray here, I’m confident he will have enough space to drain a few shots from downtown.
NBA Monday Mega Parlay has +887 odds!
Bam Adebayo over 9.5 rebounds (-130)
Adebayo has been a rebounding machine over the last 10 games averaging exactly 10 boards a night. He’s coming off a monster night at Orlando where he grabbed 17 of them, that was particularly impressive when you consider the Heat were playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. Bam won’t mind going up against Jokic, one of the best rebounders in the league. He’s been able to get double-digit boards in 2 of the last 3 games vs the Nuggets, and with Denver ranking only 20th in rebounds per game this season this could be Bam’s chance to shine once again. The last time these two teams met we saw 243 points scored, if tonight’s game is as fast as that one there’s no doubt in my mind Adebayo will grab 10 boards here.
Nikola Jokic to record 12+ assists (+185)
Another guy that will certainly profit from a faster game here is Nikola Jokic as he looks to set up his teammates once again. We’ve seen this man defer to others on a number of occasions this season, he basically has no ego. Over the course of his last 8 games he’s averaging 11.5 assists, he’s gone double-digits in 5 of his last 6 outings. Against the Heat he had 12 dimes back in their first meeting in late December, that was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings he collected 10 of them. Miami’s home defense has been average when it comes to stopping the opposing team’s ball movement – they allow 24.5 assists per game at the Miami-Dade Arena, that’s only 13th best in the NBA. After seeing the Nuggets score 119 and 146 in 2 of their last 3 games, I’m sure Jokic will find enough open teammates to get to 12 assists in this one.
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