Filip Tomic
NBA
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In what could end up being a second round matchup in this year’s playoffs, the Denver Nuggets host the LA Clippers this Sunday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET on ESPN, and I’ve come up with a Same Game Parlay to make things a bit more interesting.
To check our picks on the side and total for all 9 Sunday games, visit our NBA predictions. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Nikola Jokic over 0.5 made threes (-142)
Russell Westbrook to score 20+ points (+260)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1235
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Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Denver was beaten 112-94 by the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, in a contrasting performance to their previous game, which was a 6-point win at Cleveland on Thursday. They’ve fared well against tonight’s opponents, the Clippers, winning 8 of the teams’ last 10 meetings, so it’s a solid opportunity to turn things around and get back to winning ways. Denver has the best home record in the league at 27-4 SU and is on a 11-3 SU run over the last 14 games against Western Conference opponents. LA is coming off a double OT home loss to Sacramento in what was the 2nd-highest scoring NBA game of all-time. That will almost certainly have left a mark on the team as both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard logged over 40 minutes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they decide to skip tonight’s game. Denver has won all 3 meetings fairly convincingly this season by 10, 31 and 12 points, so I have no reason to doubt they’ll do so once again.
Our NBA Sunday mega parlay has +792 odds!
Nikola Jokic over 0.5 made threes (-142)
Getting only 15 points and 13 rebounds from Nikola Jokic in the loss at Memphis was very unusual, but what stood out for me even more was his +/- number, which was at -20 in just 27 minutes played. Things should return to normal as the Nuggets head home as Jokic is far more effective from the field when playing in front of his home fans. He has made 40.2% of his three-pointers this season on 2.2 attempts, so we might see him come out on the perimeter a couple of times. He’s at exactly 50% of makes over his last 9 outings, and with the Clippers allowing 41.5% of threes in their last 3 games there’s a solid chance he will drain one today. In 26 career games against the Clippers he’s averaging exactly 1 three made per game, and that is a confidence-inspiring sample size.
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Russell Westbrook to score 20+ points (+260)
Ty Lue is all about analytics these days, so after seeing the Clippers play double OT against the Sacramento Kings in their last game, there is a pretty big chance of him resting his heavy hitters Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. If that happens, we’ll see someone else carry the load offensively and I think Russell Westbrook will be the guy. Russ still plays with a chip on his shoulder and after his Lakers stint ended badly he wants to prove to everyone he still has some juice left. He had a really solid debut on Thursday with 17 points and 14 assists, and his scoring average is currently 15.9 per game, which is really good considering he was coming off the bench for the Lakers. He just loves playing the Nuggets for some reason. In 3 games against them this season he’s at 19.3 points and 9 assists per game in just over 30 minutes per game. With Kawhi and PG13 presumably out of the lineup, I’m sure Russ can step up his production on offense.
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