Filip Tomic
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There is no day like Christmas in the NBA regular season. For the second time in 3 years it will be the Dallas Mavericks and LA Lakers squaring off. We have an early tip-off on our hands at 2:30 pm ET on ABC. I’ve prepared another Same Game Parlay, which you can find below.
We will have picks on the side and total for all 5 Christmas Day games in our NBA predictions, so make sure you check those out. Let’s dive in!
Luka Doncic to record 10+ assists (+110)
LeBron James to score 30+ points (-120)
Christian Wood to record 10+ rebounds (-120)
Same Game Parlay odds: +592
Luka Doncic to record 10+ assists (+110)
Luka Doncic helped the Mavs record a win on Friday by scoring 50 points against the Houston Rockets. Scoring that many points is always an impressive feat, but Luka had to spend 42 minutes on the court to get there, which could take a toll on his energy levels for Sunday’s game. Because of that I think he will play a more conservative style, at least when it comes to scoring. He’s averaging 8.8 assists per game this month, an improvement from the 8.5 he was posting on November. He’s also recorded back-to-back games of 10 assists against Houston and Minnesota, which is also good news for our bet. Playing the Lakers and Lebron is always special, Luka has 12 and 13 assists in 2 of the last 3 meetings with LA, with both of those games being played in Dallas. This should be a high-tempo game as that’s just how the Lakers play, so getting his teammates involved will be the way to go for Doncic and Dallas to win.
LeBron James to score 30+ points (-120)
Not much has happened for the Lakers fans to celebrate lately, but one thing has certainly been the scoring of LeBron James. For his 6th straight game, the King has scored at least 30 points, finishing with 34 against the Charlotte Hornets on a very efficient 15-for-23 from the field. He’s doing all this just 6 days before his 38th birthday, while playing in his 20th season. No player has ever done anything similar, and now he has an opportunity to further his streak against the Mavs. James is averaging 26.4 points in 16 games played on Christmas Day and in 2021 he had 39 against the Brooklyn Nets. I’m expecting him to go all out in front of a national TV audience, especially with AD out of the lineup, so the majority of the offensive burden falls on LeBron.
Christian Wood to record 10+ rebounds (-120)
Christian Wood is another player who should benefit from the absence of Anthony Davis. He’s been a key contributor for the Mavs on the glass all season, ranking 2nd behind Doncic with an average of 6.9 rebounds per game. He’s doing that in just 27.2 minutes per game which is really impressive. Although he’s recorded just 10 rebounds over his last 2 games, prior to that he had a streak of 13, 14 and 12 boards against 3 playoff-bound opponents. The Lakers’ style of play should work in his favor as they are the 2nd-ranked team in terms of pace this year, averaging 104.5 possessions per game. More possessions naturally means more opportunities on the boards, the Lakers are also allowing 54 rebounds per game over their last 3 games, including 61 in their loss against Charlotte on Friday. Without AD their only option in the middle will be Thomas Bryant and he is no match for Wood.
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