Filip Tomic
All eyes are on Milwaukee tonight as they try to defend their 12-game win streak without their leader Giannis Antetokounmpo. Coming to town are the Miami Heat, who have beaten them twice already this season, so it promises to be a interesting contest. Tip-off is at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
We also have predictions on the side and total for the rest of Friday’s action in our NBA predictions, so please check those out as well! Let’s dive into my SGP bet now.
Miami Heat 1 -10 win margin (+200)
Tyler Herro over 2.5 made threes (-113)
Jimmy Butler over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
Same Game Parlay odds: +847
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Miami Heat 1-10 win margin (+200)
Kevin Love is set to make his Heat debut after they acquired him following a buyout with the Cavaliers. He brings size and 3-point shooting to the table, something you can’t have enough of in today’s NBA. One of the big reasons why the Heat have a chance here is the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will miss a few games as he recovers from a wrist injury. He sustained the injury against the Bulls a week ago and played only 20 seconds in the All-Star game as he didn’t want to risk injuring himself further. The Bucks are on a 12-game win streak, but without Giannis they are only 6-5 SU in 11 games this season and have lost 2 games against Miami when he didn’t play. I’m expecting both teams to be a bit sluggish after the break, but I’m leaning towards the Heat here as slight underdogs. The win will mean a lot more to them as they’re trying to secure the 6th seed, while the Bucks are pretty much sure to be in the top 3.
Check our Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks predictions
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Tyler Herro over 2.5 made threes (-113)
Tyler Herro’s responsibilities on the offensive end have increased quite a bit in February. His shot attempts have gone up from 16.3 to a whopping 20.6 in 5 games played, with his 3-point shooting also improving to 2.8 shots made on 34.1% efficiency while taking 8.2 shots per game. He is a streaky shooter, and over his last 7 games he has cleared this line 4 times, while in 6 of those games he’s knocked down at least 2 threes. With Giannis out of the picture the Bucks’ defense will suffer, and even with him playing they rank only 17th in opponent 3-point percentage when playing at home, allowing an average of 35.7% of shots. Herro has made 2.2 threes per game in 10 career matchups with Milwaukee, while in the 5 most recent meetings he has made 2.8 per game. I expect Herro to come out of the break shooting the lights out and proving he is one of the elite 3-point snipers in the game.
Friday’s NBA mega parlay has +1243 odds!
Jimmy Butler over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
With 3 players on the Heat roster averaging over 20 points per game, it’s hard to predict which one of them will have a big scoring night, so because of that I’ve opted to back Butler on the boards this evening. He has played extremely well in the 3 meetings with Milwaukee this season, averaging 7.7 boards per game and clearing this line twice. In his last game at Fiserv Forum he exploded for 32 points and 8 boards, and not having Antetokounmpo lurking behind him will be of great benefit, so I’m expecting Butler to assert himself. In their last game the Bucks gave away 60 rebounds to Chicago, and they are only 17th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, allowing 51.8 a contest, which isn’t really good. Players from both teams could show a bit of rust after a 7-day layoff, so don’t be surprised if there are more missed shots than usual, which should benefit the rebounding numbers for everyone, including Butler.
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