NBA Nuggets vs Heat Best Bets for Wednesday, June 7 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts after a play against the Miami Heat during the second quarter in game two of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena.

The NBA Finals continues in South Beach tonight as the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat play Game 3. The Nuggets easily won Game 1 in Denver, but the Heat stole Game 2 behind an incredible 4th-quarter effort from their bench. Now in Game 3, anything can happen. Here are my favorite NBA Finals bets for Game 3.

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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat First Half Under 110 (-120)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

The Nuggets and Heat play a pivotal game 3 in Miami with the series tied at a game apiece. Both teams shooting in Game 1 left something to be desired. Miami was poor all around while Denver made just 29% of their 3-pointers in the game and as such, the game stayed under the total. Oddsmakers dropped the opening total for Game 2 by 4 points, and both professional bettors and the public bet it back up. Game 2 saw both teams shoot much better with Miami at 48% from the field and 3-point range and Denver at 52% from the field and 39% from beyond the arc. Game 2 went over the total, but I expect some regression as the series shifts to Miami and the Nuggets home/road splits aren’t good.

They are a much worse shooting team away from Denver as their overall shooting drops 2 percentage points and their 3-point shooting drops over 3 percentage points. Not only that, but their scoring drops 7 points on the road. I’ll bank against Miami hitting nearly 50% from 3 in back-to-back games too since Miami shot better than 45% from 3-point range 6 times this post season, but only once did they do it in back-to-back games, and it was Game 6 and 7 against Boston. The Heat making 8 3-pointers in the first half isn’t happening again. The first half total of 110 here is just a point lower than where Game 2’s first half total was at 111. They didn’t eclipse the 1H total in Game 2 and I don’t expect in Game 3.

Check out our Nuggets vs Heat Same Game Parlay for Game 3

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Denver Nuggets -1.5 (-110) over Miami Heat

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

The Nuggets defense let them down in Game 2. It was a game they should have at least won if they didn’t cover. Denver shot 52% from the field and 39% from 3-point range and lost. However, the Heat were the team that needed blistering shooting, particularly from beyond the arc, where they remained above at least 45% for the entire game. The Heat don’t win without that. The real question is can they do it again? History during these playoffs says it’s not likely. In the first 4 games where the Heat shot at least 45% from 3-point range, they are averaging shooting 28% from deep the next game. They shot better than 45% from 3 in back-to-back games against Boston in Games 6 & 7, but then shot 33.3% in Game 1 against Denver. Simply, put the chances of the Heat staying that hot from 3 aren’t in their favor.

The Nuggets should get a prime game from Nikola Jokic, who after a playoff loss this year has responded incredibly well. After the loss to Minnesota, he had a triple-double the next game. After the first loss to Phoenix, he scored 53 points (in a loss) in the next game. After the second loss to Phoenix, he posted another triple-double. Jokic will respond again in Game 3 when his team needs him the most. I expect this game to be a little lower scoring, especially with Denver being a different team on the road, but this is a short enough number for me to back the Nuggets laying the points here.

Prop Holliday has 4 player prop best bets for Game 3

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