Filip Tomic
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Both the Suns and Clippers ran into very mild resistance in their opening round of the NBA Playoffs, but now the fun begins as they meet up in the West semi finals. Game 1 tips off on Saturday at 7.30 pm on TNT and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay to spice things up.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for upcoming NBA Playoffs games.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Over 226.5 (-110)
Deandre Ayton to score 15+ points (-150)
Devin Booker 2+ made threes (-340)
Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-120)
Same Game Parlay odds: +532
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Over 226.5 (-110)
The Suns got pretty much everything they wanted in their series against the Clippers. The absences of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard meant no resistance around the perimeter for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, as their numbers show. I still like their chances of putting up a lot of points in this series, though, as the amount of space Booker is working with as KD attracts all the attention on offense will allow him to do whatever he wants offensively.
Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.’s length could cause problems, but you need a complete team effort to slow down a player like Durant. On the road the Suns have gone over the total 9 times in their last 11 games, while overall they’re 6-2 on the O/U in their last 8 played. The total has also gone over in 4 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings, while an average of 228.6 points per game has been scored in their last 10. This series is going to be a lot of fun, and I expect the over to land in most games. Let’s back the points in Game 1.
Deandre Ayton to score 15+ points (-150)
This is going to be a massive series for Deandre Ayton, I’d argue his success against Nikola Jokic will decide advances to the conference finals. These two players have faced off a total of 10 times so far in the regular season, Ayton is averaging 20.7 points per game and has cleared the 15 point mark in every single game aside from their first meeting way back in 2018 when he had just 5 points. In the 2021 playoffs, Ayton averaged 14.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in the Suns sweep, starting the series with 20 points in Game 1. He shot exactly 61% from the field, so he likes the match-up. His size and agility will be a problem for the Serbian big man who tends to struggle against more agile centers. Karl-Anthony Towns had a couple of really solid performances in the previous series against him, as a team the Nuggets were allowing 54.7 points per game from inside the paint in the last 3 games. For a player like Ayton who does most of his damage from up close, that is something he will definitely try to take advantage of on Saturday.
Devin Booker 2+ made threes (-340)
Booker’s performances in the first round against the Clippers were historically great from a statistical standpoint. He finished the series averaging 37.2 points, 5 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game, while shooting over 60% from the field and better than 46% from three. In the series clincher he exploded for 47 and 10 assists, it was one of the best performances we saw in the NBA postseason this decade. But, as his idol Kobe Bryant would say “job is not done”. All those numbers won’t mean much if the Suns lose this series. Booker torched the Suns in that 2021 West semi-finals averaging 25.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game on 48% shooting from the field. He averaged exactly 2 threes per game, and dating back to 2020 he has made at least 2 threes in 10 of 14 games vs Denver. He cleared this line in 4 of the 5 games against the Clippers, so I’m liking his chances to do it again in the series opener on Saturday.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-120)
Since we’re on the subject of threes, I’m also including Michael Porter Jr. in my SGP. Although he had only 8 points in the series clincher vs Minnesota, Porter Jr. still finished the series averaging 2.8 makes per game from distance on a more than respectable 42.4% efficiency. The Nuggets will need his production against the high scoring Suns in this series, so he cannot shy away from the challenge regardless if Kevin Durant or Devin Booker is on him. In the last 3 games of the series vs Minnesota he logged 40 mins per game, if his play time continues to be in that range that should almost automatically mean 12-15 shot attempts. Phoenix has shown weakness in defending the perimeter against the Clippers allowing 37% of LA’s shots to fall from distance over the last 3 games of this series. Porter Jr. averaged exactly 3 threes in that 2021 series against the Suns, so I’m confident he’ll start off the series with a solid game here.
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