Filip Tomic
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Following 2 consecutive Phoenix Suns wins, the series is now tied at 2-2 and it’s up to the Denver Nuggets to respond with Game 5 taking place at Ball Arena. Tipoff is live at 10:00 pm ET on TNT and I have prepared a Same Game Parlay, which is available below.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for Game 5 of Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Denver Nuggets 1-10 win margin (+170)
Nikola Jokic 1+ made 3s (-330)
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made 3s (+100)
Kevin Durant Over 0.5 blocks (-320)
Same Game Parlay odds: +788
Denver Nuggets 1-10 win margin (+170)
Game 5 is huge for both teams with the series lead being on the line. It should be another close game as the last 3 meetings were all decided by 10 points or fewer. Denver head coach Michael Malone mentioned his defense needs to be a lot better than in the previous 2 games, so I think his adjustments for Game 5 will primarily revolve around that. That recipe worked in the opening 2 games of the series when they held the Suns to a combined 194 points. The Nuggets enter tonight’s game having won 7 in a row at home, and they are also 4-1 SU in their last 5 at Ball Arena against the Suns. Devin Booker has had it going in the last couple of games, so slowing him down would give the Nuggets the best chance of winning. Kevin Durant will probably get his fair share regardless of who defends him. We have seen the Suns struggle quite a bit on the road, covering the spread just once in their last 5 games. Chris Paul is probably not going to play yet again, and I’m not ready to trust their bench after just 1 solid game they played on Sunday. I’m taking Denver to win a close one and take the series lead back.
Read our Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Predictions
Nikola Jokic 1+ made 3s (-330)
Only Nikola Jokic can score 53 points and dish out 11 assists in a game and the media would completely ignore it. Instead they focused on his incident with Suns owner Mat Ishbia as the pair got in a minor scuffle in Game 4. Jokic was fined $25k for pushing Ishbia but avoided a suspension, which is obviously great news for Denver. I don’t think that will have any effect on the Serbian big man. To say that he has been impressive this postseason run would be an understatement. Jokic has knocked down a 3-pointer in all but Game 1 of the Timberwolves series and so far he’s shooting it at 47.2% in 9 games played. That kind of efficiency for a player of his size is truly remarkable, so I feel very confident in him making at least 1 triple in tonight’s game, as well. During the regular season he also made 50% of his attempts in 2 games against the Suns, so all the numbers are pointing in his favor.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 made 3s (+100)
Denver cannot rely on Jokic to keep scoring 50 points and keeping the team afloat. Jamal Murray is doing his part so far in this series, averaging 26 points per game, so it’ll be up to Michael Porter Jr. to give them a much-needed lift from 3-point land. After a rough start in the first 2 games, he got it going in Games 3 and 4 — knocking down 6 and 2 3s. With the series now returning to Denver, I expect his level of play to also go up; that’s generally what happens with role players. He shot the 3-ball at 42% in round 1 and 41% during the regular season, so it’s not like forgot to shoot overnight. Phoenix has guarded the perimeter well over its last 3 games, but on the road this season it is giving up 36% of made 3s. Let’s hope Porter Jr. can set up his bearings for Game 5 and knock down a few shots.
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Kevin Durant Over 0.5 blocks (-320)
As good as Durant has been on offense, I have been equally impressed by his stellar play on the defensive end of the floor. With Deandre Ayton struggling to even stay on the court against Jokic, Durant has taken it upon himself to become the team’s main rim protector — averaging 2 blocks per game in this series. So far he has recorded multiple blocks in 3 of the 4 games and at least 1 in every single game of the series. If we take into account round 1 against the Clippers, he has a total of 13 blocks this postseason run while recording at least 1 block in all but 2 games played. With him playing 40+ minutes in every single game but Game 1 of this series, the law of averages tells us that at 6’10” he is bound to meet someone at the rim at least once and block a shot. With 72 points scored in the paint in Game 4, the Nuggets are clearly taking advantage of the weaknesses on the inside by the Suns and I don’t expect that to change all that much in Game 5.
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