Filip Tomic
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Denver pulled away early in Game 1 and never looked back in a 125-107 win, but can the Suns respond and level the series before it shifts to the Valley for the next 2 games? Catch the game live from 10 pm ET on TNT. I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay to spice things up.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for Game 1 of Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Over 227 (-110)
Nikola Jokic 1+ made threes (-260)
Kevin Durant to record 2+ blocks (+155)
Same Game Parlay odds: +541
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Over 227 (-110)
If the Suns are to even this series 1-1 before they head home, they need to regress to the mean shooting the three-ball, which is likely based on their history when Durant plays. On the other hand, even though the Nuggets should shoot worse from beyond the arc, you could argue they need a better game from Nikola Jokić as well. The two-time MVP was just 9-for-21 from the field and despite getting 8 offensive rounds, was prioritizing setting up Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, who was cooking early. There is no one-on-one matchup on the Suns to truly lock down the skillset of Jokic so I expect him to have a more efficient offensive night, making offense the smart move to back in this contest.
The total finished at 233 in Game 1 and if Game 2 is more competitive, expect a back-and-forth affair on offense — especially if free throws are rampant. Look for a bounce-back effort from Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant on the road.
Read our Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Predictions
Nikola Jokic 1+ made threes (-260)
After pretty much coasting the last month of the regular season seemingly not caring about the MVP award, Jokic has really turned it up in the playoffs over his first 6 games and the numbers back it up. He’s on a streak of at least 1 three made in 5 straight games after not even attempting one in the series opener vs Minnesota. Jokic is shooting at an incredible 50% efficiency so far, making 12 of 24 attempts.
Against a Suns team that has only 1 real center on their roster, playing around the perimeter is a good strategy as it then lures Ayton outside opening up the paint for players like Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray to exploit. Those two combined for 59 points in Game 1 as a direct result of that, so I think the Nuggets and Jokic will stick to that tonight as well. The Suns have allowed an average of 37.3% of makes from downtown in their last 3 games, Denver shot 43.2% from deep on Saturday, let’s hope Jokic contributes to that tonight with at least 1 made shot from distance.
Kevin Durant to record 2+ blocks (+155)
Kevin Durant came out with a lot of energy in the series opener, especially on the defensive end where he was able to collect 14 rebounds and block 3 shots, 2 of which came in the opening 12 minutes of the game. He didn’t have the best of games turnover wise, but I think he will be able to clean that up in Game 2. With the Suns severely lacking an interior presence and Deandre Ayton struggling to cope with 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic, KD is forced to play a lot closer to the basket and be a help defender. His length should come in handy, as it was in the series against the Clippers where he had 2 games of at least 2 blocks. Denver’s tendencies on offense have been oriented towards attacking the paint they’re averaging 57.3 points per game on the inside in their last 3 contests, if that carries on to tonight’s game I think Durant will be able to block a couple of shots.
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