Ricky Dimon
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And then there were 4… The Final Four is upon us, tipping off on Saturday evening with the national semifinals before the championship game takes place on Monday night. A quartet of characters that no one could have expected is left battling for title, namely UConn, Miami, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic. Blue bloods North Carolina, Duke, Kansas and Villanova (last year’s Final Four participants) ain’t walkin’ through that door. This 2023 lineup may not be for everyone, but you just might want to tune in because this NCAA Tournament has been extremely entertaining and it should continue in Houston.
The Pickswise experts have been on fire with our NBA parlays and now we are taking our talents back to the college hardwood. Below is my Final Four mega parlay, and also be sure to check out all of our college basketball coverage on the March Madness hub.
Florida Atlantic ML (+110)
Miami ML (+210)
Miami vs UConn Under 149.5 (-110)
NCAAB parlay odds: +1143
For this parlay we are going with two underdogs on the money line and an under play. Let’s break down each of the legs.
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Florida Atlantic ML over San Diego State (+110)
Defense wins championships (at least occasionally) and either San Diego State or Florida Atlantic will play for a championship on Monday likely because of its defense. SDSU’s defensive skills are well documented, but don’t sleep on FAU. Only once in 4 NCAA Tournament games have the Owls surrendered more than 70 points (to Kansas State). Tennessee managed a mere 55 in the second round. Led by Vlad Goldin in the paint, the Owls rank in the 97th percentile in rim defense according to Synergy. This is almost certainly going to be a close, low-scoring game between these stout defensive teams, and close games are exactly what FAU has been winning in the Big Dance. All 4 of the Owls’ victories have come by single digits and they pulled away late in 3 of them (the exception being the first round against Memphis, which came down to the last second). This team just knows how to win, so don’t be surprised if the Cinderella ride continues.
Miami ML over UConn (+210)
The Huskies are looking scary good, but they are only a #4 seed for a reason. Their overall body of work is solid but unspectacular; not better than Miami’s, really. A beatdown of Gonzaga was impressive, but the Zags were gassed following their thriller against UCLA and Drew Timme was in foul trouble the entire way. Miami is rolling, too. Nobody is more battle-tested than the Hurricanes, who won a dreaded 5-12 matchup with Creighton, took out #4 seed Indiana, stunned #1 Houston and then engineered a second-half comeback from double digits down to beat a red-hot Texas squad. This is head coach Jim Larranaga’s second trip to the Final Four, having taken upstart George Mason there in 2006. Of this year’s coaching corps in the national semis, Larranaga is the one I’m not betting against. Armed with perhaps his most talented team ever, he could go all the way this time.
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Miami vs UConn Under 149.5 (-110)
UConn has been a force from a defensive standpoint of late, ranking 8th in BartTorvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency in March. KenPom has the Huskies ranked 204th in adjusted tempo and 239th in average possession length. So not only do they play great defense, but they also don’t have to guard for a big number of possessions day in and day out. That combination is a recipe for low scores. UConn limited high-octane, fast-paced offenses such as Iona and Gonzaga to fewer than 65 points earlier in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, head coach Danny Hurley’s team did not allow more than 65 points a single time during its run to the Final Four. According to Synergy, the Huskies have given up just 0.736 points per possession in the half-court throughout the Big Dance while holding the opposition under 1.0 points per possession in transition. I think Miami can win this game, but it probably won’t be due to pouring in a ton of points.
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