Ryan Hodges
NHL
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Monday kicks off the stretch run of the regular season with a lot still up in the air. With several teams still mathematically in the playoff hunt, games will only ramp up in intensity day by day moving forward. Several fringe playoff teams are suited up on Monday. A smaller but quality 6-game schedule is a great way to ease back into action for both the league and fans.
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Lightning vs Panthers over 7.5 (+185)
Canucks vs Devils over 6.5 (-120)
Stars win and over 6.5 (+150)
Parlay odds: +1206
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers over 7.5 (+185)
The total has gone over in 4 of the Lightning’s last 6 games. The over has also hit in the Panthers’ last 7 games and in 6 of their last 7 at home. Those recent overs trends contribute to these teams’ season long totals trends. The combined over under record of the Lightning and Panthers is 52-39-9. That includes Florida’s home over under record and Tampa’s road over under record to combine for a 22-20-4 record. In their respective last 10 games, the over is 13-4-3 in those combined 20 games. Over that stretch, the Panthers at home and Lightning on the road combined for an over under record of 6-1-2. Their trends match up well for the over.
The Lightning score the NHL’s 4th most goals per game and have the league’s 3rd best power play. That offensive production is the primary reason their totals have leaned higher this season. Recent performances have not deviated from that strength as they have scored 4+ goals in 7 of their last 10 games. Their goal prevention is good, but not lock down. Tampa has also allowed 4+ goals in 5 of their last 12 games. That volatility pairs well for an over when combined with the volatility of the Panthers. Florida has the league’s 7th best goal scoring but the 9th worst goal prevention. That strength and weakness combination has been a great recipe for overs all season long. Monday shouldn’t deviate from strengths and weaknesses or recent trends.
Check out our player props for Monday’s NHL slate
Vancouver Canucks vs New Jersey Devils over 6.5 (-120)
The over has been hitting for these of these teams lately but for different reasons. The Devils have produced offensively since the first drop of the puck this season without really any major slumping. That production has been the driver behind the over hitting in 8 of New Jersey’s last 11 games. The Devils have played the Canucks once this season in a game they won 5-2. There is a good chance for repeat results on Monday. The over has hit in each of Vancouver’s first 3 games under a new coaching staff, and their goal prevention is their achilles heel regardless of coaching personnel. The Canucks allow the 2nd most goals per game in the NHL and have the worst penalty kill. A fresh Devils team should be able to run up the score.
Vancouver has been no stranger to high totals this season, specifically on the road. Their over under record this season is 29-17-3 including 19-5-1 on the road. In their last 10 games, the over is 6-2-2 including 4-0-1 on the road. The Canucks have scored or allowed 5+ goals in 3 straight games under new coach Rick Tocchet and just traded away their star captain. All indications are they are still figuring things out and with that, will likely continue to be volatile. The Devils’ strong offensive production combined with the Canucks’ weak goal prevention and volatility look great for another over.
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Dallas Stars win and over 6.5 (+150) vs Anaheim Ducks
This is a lopsided matchup in favor of the Stars. Dallas’ one win over Anaheim this season was a 5-0 shutout, and they have a good chance to repeat that 5-goal performance. The Stars are firmly in the mix to win the Central and the Western Conference. With competitors breathing down their necks, they will not take any teams for granted down the stretch. If they are going to lock up a top division or conference spot, they have to take care of business against teams like the Ducks. Dallas is the better team and will be playing with urgency. Unless the Stars mail it in or plain get outplayed, they should win without too much issue on Monday.
The Ducks’ overs trends throughout this season are the main reason the over looks great again in this one. The total has gone over in 10 of their last 11 games and in their last 6 on the road. Their over under record this season is 28-22 including 17-10 on the road and 9-1 overall in their last 10. Anaheim’s weak goal prevention is the main reason that the over has been so prominent in their season. The Ducks score the league’s least goals per game and have the 3rd worst power play. Despite that, they have high game totals due to their worst ranked goal prevention and 3rd worst penalty kill. With their goal prevention outweighing goal scoring in terms of totals, combined with Dallas’ strong offense, a high total looks great again.
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