Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Sunday night is wrapped up with a battle of the NFC East with the Dallas Cowboys heading to Metlife Stadium to take on the New York Giants. Big Blue is a 3-point underdog at home, which is almost an auto-bet as home divisional underdogs are 88% ATS and 61% SU in Week 1 since 2012. The Cowboys owned both matchups last season, with one win coming by Cooper Rush. For Dallas, it will be interesting to see how the offense looks without Ezekiel Elliott and with Mike McCarthy calling plays as Kellen Moore departed for Los Angeles. Let’s take a look at some props.
Check out our Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants predictions
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Saquon Barkley over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing
At first glance, this line feels low for someone who is considered one of the premier running backs in the league. Barkley is coming off 4.4 ypc last season in his first year with Brian Daboll’s offense, which is impressive considering how abysmal the Giants passing game was. They finished dead last with 24 total pass attempts of 20 or more yards according to Next Gen Stats. Defenses were not scared to stack the box and despite that, Barkley performed admirably as he beat this line in 10/16 games (62%).
The emphasis this offseason for Daboll was the deep passing game, getting speedster Jalin Hyatt in the draft and signing Darren Waller to own the middle of the field. Both of these additions will pay dividends for Barkley in the run game and allow him to hit the incentives of his highly publicized 1-year deal. I project he will need 14 carries to hit this mark, and luckily he did that in 75% of games last season. I can see Barkley in for a big night as the Giants potentially pull off the upset in primetime. 1U
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Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Line available on DraftKings at the time of publishing.
Zeke Elliott scored 12 touchdowns last season all inside the 20. He has since departed to the New England Patriots this offseason and this “Texas Coast” offense now run by Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer is fully in Dak’s hands. They are on record saying they will simplify things and let guys play fast. When that happens, we often see explosive plays from big playmakers. Dak is coming off a rough year, but still managed to have 2+TD in 66% of starts last season. In 2021, he hit this line 68% of the time. I’m simply rolling with the number here.
Brandin Cooks comes over to replace the production of Noah Brown and he’s more than capable; his issue has never been ability, it’s availability. Lucky for us, it’s Week 1. Dalton Schultz will be missed, but Jake Ferguson and rookie Luke Schoonmaker have enough potential to make us forget rather quickly. Regardless, Tony Pollard has the ability to make plays in the receiving game and Michael Gallup is as boom or bust as they get from week to week. He has 23 touchdowns in 12 career games against the Giants, close enough to that 2 mark for me to feel comfortable laying the 10 cents. 1U
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