Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Every year on Super Wild Card Weekend we get at least one upset that shocks people. For me, that’s the Commanders (+3) over the Buccaneers on Sunday night. The first game of Jayden Daniels’ career was in Tampa, where the Commanders fell 37-20 — but the Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign began that day.
Since then, the Commanders raffled off a 12-4 record in their last 16 games and nearly won the NFC East. The Buccaneers are championed by QB Baker Mayfield, having the best season of his career despite a revolving door of skill position players outside of Mike Evans. Both offenses boast the potential to be explosive with pedestrian defenses, but I like the HC/QB combo of Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels over Todd Bowles/Baker Mayfield as they are the team playing ahead of schedule and — ultimately — nothing to lose in Daniels’ rookie year (similar to the Texans’ victory over the Browns last year). Let’s get into my best Commanders vs Buccaneers player prop bet, while you can find out our NFL picks on the side and total for EVERY Wild Card game this weekend.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions for their HUGE Wild Card matchup
Jayden Daniels (WAS) Over 8.5 rush attempts (-115)
Line is available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
This is one of the games I have circled for upset this weekend with the Commanders getting 3 points on Sunday night. Daniels’ median rush attempts on the season is a perfect 8.5, so there is no edge on the number itself. I did notice that he rushed 16 times (season high) against Tampa Bay and I think that’s tied to the Bucs’ blitz rate (3rd highest in the league). When blitzed this season, Daniels has a league-high 27 scramble attempts (9 more than second place). A lot has changed since that Week 1 matchup, but blitzing a rookie QB in his first playoff game seems like a solid plan for Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles. In the event Washington pulls off this upset, Daniels hit this mark in 6 of 12 regular-season wins and kneel-downs do count as rush attempts. 1u.
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