Pickswise Computer Model NFL futures best value bets after Week 2: Raiders ready to roll to the Super Bowl?!

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) gestures on the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. Las Vegas won 26-17.
Photo of Andrew Wilsher

Andrew Wilsher

NFL· 1 month ago

Show Bio

Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer, and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan.

The 2021 NFL regular season is now in full flow, with every team having played two games and plenty of chances to understand who’s looking hot this year, and who isn’t looking so great. One thing you can always get a slice of throughout the season is NFL futures bets.

With futures bets, one of the hardest things is to know when you’re getting the value, and when you should be zoning in on the odds. What if I told you that here at Pickswise we’ve come up with a computer model that can do most of the work for you?

The Pickswise data science team has built a robust predictive machine learning model that makes use of a proprietary dynamic rating system to predict outcomes for the rest of the NFL season. The model analyzes various in-house metrics, and also factors in situational spots such as rest weeks, home advantage, and time-zone differentials.

After simulating the rest of the 2021 season 10,000 times and comparing each outcome’s probabilities to current consensus market prices, the model has picked its best and worst spots for value. Let’s dive in to the best NFL futures bets ahead of Week 3, as highlighted by our model.

Best value Super Bowl bet: Las Vegas Raiders (+5000)

The Raiders have been red hot through the first two weeks of the season, beating the Ravens (who then beat the Chiefs) and then seeing off a tough Steelers team. While sportsbooks have already reacted by cutting their odds for most futures bets, our model indicates that they still have by far the most value when comparing the model’s prediction and their betting probability.

When the model’s simulations were conducted, the Raiders were deemed as having a 1.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl by most sportsbooks. However, after running the simulations 10,000 times, our computer model has found that the Raiders have a Super Bowl win probability of 9.55% — a difference of 7.86% compared to their odds! To highlight just how huge this is, the team with the second-most value is the Carolina Panthers, and their difference is only 2.59%.

Our model is all about the Raiders, and is saying now is the time to be getting on the Vegas bandwagon.

Worst value Super Bowl bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+500)

The Chiefs remain narrow favorites with some sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl despite Sunday night’s loss in Baltimore, and our computer model isn’t at all impressed by Andy Reid’s men. When the simulations were conducted, the Chiefs had a 14.1% chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy by sportsbooks, but our model predicts that is actually closer to 8.38%. That’s obviously still a good chance of going all the way for Patrick Mahomes and company, but it’s a negative difference of -5.76% compared to the betting odds. It’s also important to point out that the model’s prediction gives them a lower chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Raiders.

The next two teams with the worst value are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.08% difference between betting probability and model prediction) and the Green Bay Packers (-2.43%).

Best value regular-season wins bet: New York Giants under 5.5 (+100)

Once again, the Giants have made a very poor start to the 2021 NFL season, and our model predicts that things won’t get any better for Joe Judge’s men.

Similar to the Super Bowl predictions, the Giants have odds of +100 to finish with under 5.5 wins this season, which is the equivalent of a 50% chance of that happening. However, following our model’s simulations, we have found that there is a huge 90% chance of that happening — a difference of 40%!

The Giants had a tough break against Washington last week on Thursday Night Football to drop to 0-2, and if our model is correct, then there could be plenty more of those tough losses to come for the G-men.

Other regular-season win total bets with the best value are the Jacksonville Jaguars under 4.5 wins at -110, and the Las Vegas Raiders over 9.5 wins at +100.

Worst value regular-season wins bet: Green Bay Packers under 10.5 (-140)

The Packers bounced back from their Week 1 humiliation with a somewhat comfortable victory over the Lions on Monday Night Football, and our model suggests that it’s worth keeping faith with Green Bay to still have a huge season.

Green Bay is currently -140 to finish the season with less than 10.5 wins, which is an implied probability of 58.3%, but our model indicates that the under probability is actually 52%. So it’s worth taking into account that the under is still more likely than unlikely according to our computer, but that there is absolutely no value in taking it as it could go right down to the wire.

Other regular-season win total bets that have bad value according to our computer model are the Buffalo Bills over 11.5 wins at -140 and the Denver Broncos under 10.5 wins at -140.

Be sure to check out the Pickswise NFL Computer Picks. and score predictions. With predictions available across the top NFL betting markets including Moneyline, Totals and Against the Spread predictions for every game.

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $2, Win $150 CASH for NBA Tipoff!

Register for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make a deposit of $10+

Bet $2 on any NBA game on Oct. 19 or Oct. 20

If you pick the winner correctly, you win $150 in CASH!

21+ and new players only. Max bet $2, max reward $150. Must deposit $10+ to be eligible for promotion. Full terms available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unibet

$50

Bet $5, Win $50 if Your Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with Unibet and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any NBA team to win their next game

If your team hits a 3-pointer during the game, you win a bonus $50 - regardless of the game's outcome!

Max bet $5. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Unibet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5, Get $200 On The NBA!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

place a money line bet of at least $5+ on any NBA Basketball game that starts between 10/19 and 11/7

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose - up to $5,000!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.