Ricky Dimon
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Although there have been more than few game postponements and/or cancellations, Saturday’s college basketball slate remains a huge one. Michigan is once again putting its undefeated record on the line, while the most popcorn-worthy matchup of the day pits Baylor (also undefeated) against Texas Tech.
Here’s our five-team parlay for Saturday:
Mississippi State -1 (-110)
Miami +3.5 (-110)
Boston College ML (+180)
Michigan ML (-240)
Alabama vs. Arkansas Under 162 (-110)
Parlay odds: +2637
For this play we mix in one favorite against the spread, one underdog and the points, two outright winners (one favorite and one underdog), and an under. Let’s break down each of the five legs one by one.
Mississippi State -1 over Florida (-110)
Mississippi State has not lost two games in a row since its first two of the season, and that is a fate it will be trying to avoid after falling to Texas A&M 56-55 on Wednesday. The Bulldogs have turned things around in a big way since season-opening losses to Clemson and Liberty, and that’s an understatement. They have not lost by more than one point in regulation since Thanksgiving (their other two recent losses have come in double-overtime). This stretch includes a 78-63 drubbing of then-No. 13 Missouri last week. Things are not going nearly as well for Florida, which is understandable given all the turmoil of this 2020-21 campaign. Keyontae Johnson, the Gators’ best player, collapsed against Florida State on Dec. 12 and will not return. With Johnson out, they don’t have anyone averaging more than 14.0 ppg (Tre Mann). UF is coming off a win over Ole Miss, but that was preceded by losses to Alabama and Kentucky–the latter in especially alarming 76-58 fashion.
Miami (FL) +3.5 over Louisville (-110)
This is a “buy low, sell high” spot. Miami was destroyed by Boston College in its most recent game, but as you will see later in this piece Boston College is no slouch. The Hurricanes are 15th in the country at two-point field goal defense—including 14th at the rim—and 24th in block rate. You need to beat them via outside shooting, which is what the Eagles did. Louisville, however, prefers to get its points from inside the arc. The Cardinals are 304th in three-point attempt rate. It is also worth emphasizing that Miami could obviously lose this game and still cover the spread. Outside of the Boston College game, the Hurricanes’ last four contests were all decided by five points or less.
Boston College ML over Notre Dame (+180)
Notre Dame is coming off consecutive setbacks against Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Virginia again. Although none of those losses are terrible in name, the Fighting Irish are now 0-5 in the ACC (they also fell to Duke earlier in the season) and lost three non-conference contests all by double-digits. They trailed by as many as 24 points in the second meeting with UVA before losing by 12. Boston College knows a thing or two about halting four-game losing streaks. In fact, the Eagles just did it by beating Miami (FL) 84-62 on Tuesday. Senior guard Rich Kelly, who scored 27 points, talked afterward about how his team had been knocking on the door even during its skid and now the floodgates could open now that there is a recent check mark in the win column.
Michigan ML over Minnesota (-240)
Michigan is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the country. The Wolverines have yet to lose and their wins are getting more impressive each week. The Big Ten is supposed to be the best conference in America and they have won all but one of their Big Ten games by at least 11 points. Earlier this week they humiliated Wisconsin by 23 points, making one of the most experienced teams in the country look foolish. Center Hunter Dickenson may be the best freshman in the country. At the same time, Minnesota is a tough test. The Golden Gophers have no bad losses to date and are definitely one of the better teams in the Big Ten, at least when they are at home. Therefore the money line is safer than the spread.
Arkansas vs. Alabama Under 162 (-110)
Justin Smith’s absence is big for Arkansas and Alabama also isn’t quite at full strength, either. Jahvon Quinerly, the Crimson Tide’s third leading scorer at 13 points per game, hasn’t played in the last few games. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well from three-point range, so there is no need to worry about this one getting too out of hand in a hurry. It is true that both of these teams play at fast paces, but that may be the reason why this total is inflated at 162—presenting a great opportunity to back the under. Both squads are used to running, so it really won’t be much of an advantage for either offense to play at a ridiculous pace. With each team missing a key piece on offense and neither team shooting the ball well from deep, the under looks like a strong move.
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