Ricky Dimon
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Super Bowl LVI is here. No, it’s not quite gameday at this point in time. But the matchup is set. It’s a fun one, too, even though neither the Los Angeles Rams nor the Cincinnati Bengals was expected to be the representative from its respective conference when this season began. Heck, they were still longshots even at the beginning of the playoffs. Alas, both teams battled their way into the Super Bowl – and in dramatic fashion, too.
The Rams are currently -4.5 favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. They are -200 on the money line. The Bengals are +168 underdogs.
What can Cincinnati do to pull off the upset? Let’s break it down.
The offensive line must protect Joe Burrow
I was the only member of our weekly three-team panel on The Burning Question to pick the Bengals. The other two went with the Rams largely because of the matchup between L.A.’s defensive line and Cincy’s offensive line. As I did in that piece, I acknowledge that such a matchup is my greatest concern for the Bengals. They gave up a ridiculous 9 sacks in the divisional round against Tennessee, and now they have to face a Los Angeles defense that boasts the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller.
Cincinnati is not going to win this game if Joe Burrow is getting sacked left and right or even if he is simply under pressure time and time again, because L.A. also features a stout secondary led by Jalen Ramsey. If Burrow is forced into making ill-advised throws, Ramsey and company will be chomping at the bit.
Burrow must outplay Matthew Stafford
Regardless of what Cincinnati’s offensive line does or doesn’t do, Burrow must be better than Matthew Stafford. It’s as simple as that. Not even Bengals fans will claim that their quarterback has a better supporting cast around him – offense and defense included – than the Rams’ veteran signal-caller.
Burrow has to be the best quarterback on the field on February 13, and I believe that will be the case. The guy is a flat-out winner. No quarterback in the history of football has won the Heisman Trophy, the National Championship, and the Super Bowl. Burrow has a chance to do it all in the span of 3 years. The former LSU standout took down the Kansas City Chiefs twice this season, including on the road in the AFC Championship from 21-3 behind. Stafford did well to lead his team past the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and San Francisco 49ers, but he wasn’t exactly a pillar of steadiness against either Tampa Bay or San Francisco in the latter stages of those games.
The secondary must make Bates-esque plays
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals’ secondary must step up just like it did throughout the second half and overtime of the AFC Championship. If that doesn’t happen, then…well…Burrow will have a hard time outperforming Stafford. The weapons that Stafford has at his disposal are no secret; Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., and Van Jefferson just to name a few.
Cincinnati’s cornerbacks and safeties were incredible down the stretch against the Chiefs, who had 21 points with 5 minutes remaining in the first half of the AFC title tilt and finished with just 24. The Bengals’ defensive turnaround was highlighted by Jessie Bates III’s deflection of a Patrick Mahomes pass on the first possession of overtime that was intercepted by Vonn Bell. Burrow promptly put his team in field-goal range and Evan McPherson wasted no time booting the game-winner for a 27-24 victory.
The Rams’ defense is such that the Bengals will probably have to keep this a relatively low-scoring contest if they want to prevail. In order to do that, the secondary will once again have to come up big along with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard making life uncomfortable for Stafford.
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